Replies to post #32250 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[DowDeva]

How come I have a picture of something that looks like a withered old carrot next to my name!!!???!!!

[arjunah]

DowDeva, if Aug was the 4.5Y low and Sigma L (trend underlying the 9Y cycle) is down, that is as bearish a Hurst interpretation as you could possibly have. You would have the first 20W cycle coming out of the 4.5Y low being severely left translated and with a lower low. It implies that the October 07 highs is the high for the 4.5Y cycle beginning Aug. 07. It would mean we are at one of the best long term shorting opportunities of a life-time. I'm not anywhere near that bearish at this time.

[airedale88]

deva, there is a sigma el for any cycle examined. it's the sum of all longer term cycles' trends. the tricky part of reading sigma el is Hurst states that fundamental effect such as pseudo trend must also be included in sigma el estimation. cycle straddles are usually shorter term fundamental anomalies but the current duration of the negative news and market reaction to such is more typical of pseudo trend, a longer lasting fundamental event. it's my belief that sigma el over the nominal 9 yr cycle remains up, longer cycles such as the 18 and 36 yr are early off their recent bottoms, the last 4.5 yr cycle showed extreme high right translation. sigma el over the current 4.5 yr cycle(IMO starting from the aug 07 low)is down currently as fundamental interaction is overwhelming any cyclic impetus.