Short Term Trading Member Forum

[airedale88]

deva, there is a sigma el for any cycle examined. it's the sum of all longer term cycles' trends. the tricky part of reading sigma el is Hurst states that fundamental effect such as pseudo trend must also be included in sigma el estimation. cycle straddles are usually shorter term fundamental anomalies but the current duration of the negative news and market reaction to such is more typical of pseudo trend, a longer lasting fundamental event. it's my belief that sigma el over the nominal 9 yr cycle remains up, longer cycles such as the 18 and 36 yr are early off their recent bottoms, the last 4.5 yr cycle showed extreme high right translation. sigma el over the current 4.5 yr cycle(IMO starting from the aug 07 low)is down currently as fundamental interaction is overwhelming any cyclic impetus.