sgolds: Some of the unease surrounding the issue of ramp up arises from lack of clarity in AMD Q4 CC language. If you remember, there had been a prior prediction from AMD that"hundreds of thousands" of Athlons would be sold in Q4. This was widely interpreted to mean between 200,000 and 500,000. Apparently some, or most, AMD investors expected it to be nearer the higher end than the lower. Then an analyst "warned" that it would be "only" 300,000. This caused much heated debate. The actual revenues/earnings reported suggested to some that the number was between 200,000 and 280,000. At the Q4 CC, an analyst asked the question, and the reply was to the effect that AMD was very satisfied with the pace of the ramp and that chips were being produced "by the turn of a knob" according to market demand and the need to maximise bottom line profits. Accepting that statement at face value we are left with the question "what is market demand?".
The optimists assume that the availability of AMD products on the shelves, and the interest being shown in the media, translates into high numbers of sales and/or increasing ASPs and margins. The scetpics claim that AMD's reply to the question at the 4Q CC was an attempt to obfuscate to cover a poor ramp (whether from weak demand or manufacturing problems). Those of us who are favourable to the overall AMD story tend to accept the AMD assurances. But there is enough uncertainty in the statements to provide Xbits-type articles with fertile ground to sew doubt.
Unless someone can produce hard evidence, I suppose we will have to wait and see.
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