Replies to post #221549 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Paul A]

oh hey wait now.. things are finally fruitating and you throw that wrench into our heads for the night? : )

Today seemed very orderly though.. it really did.. but perhaps you dont see those extremes until the next move down after the spring rally? I could swear you even made mention of that over the weekend..

I do enjoy this trading biz for that reason though.. No more worrying about position trades and gap ups/downs.. I just go all cash and start over again the next day. I have no idea how your turnips consistently predict these moves and by time I ever came close to figuring it out id be 6ft under.. : )

[hightecheast]

Zeev. This is from John Murphy tonight. Do you agree with this at all?

VIX SPIKES UPWARD... The CBOE Volatility Index has jumped over 20 for the first time in six months. That's a number I generally use to signal that the stock market is in danger of a more serious correction. The VIX, which trades in the opposite direction of the stock market, has been trading under 18 for the last three months. Normally, numbers that low warn of too much complacency in the stock market which is a caution signal. However, it takes an upturn in the VIX to signal lower stock prices. It peaked over 40 during the second half of 2002 as the bottom bottomed and has been in a downtrend since then. The breaking of the down trendline suggests that the trend of the VIX is turning higher. If history is any guide, the VIX usually climbs into the 35-40 region before the market finds an important bottom. The fact that it's still in the low 20s suggests that there's more upside to come in the VIX and more downside in the market.

Thanks ... Ken Wilson

[Jeffrey Scott]

My problem is that I still do not have good "bottoming" action here.


Markets seem to be rebounding today. Futures up big. You think this is just a correction and back down we go? Interesting times we live in.

BTW, lots happening in the Rambus arena. Markman ruling in the Hynix case (California 2 pm pst). Summary judgement on Thursday (Hynix again). Friday, Judge has to decide if 17200 will be allowed in trial (Virginia 2pm est).

Have a nice day,

Jeff