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Re: Zeev Hed post# 221549

Monday, 03/22/2004 7:55:45 PM

Monday, March 22, 2004 7:55:45 PM

Post# of 704041
Zeev. This is from John Murphy tonight. Do you agree with this at all?

VIX SPIKES UPWARD... The CBOE Volatility Index has jumped over 20 for the first time in six months. That's a number I generally use to signal that the stock market is in danger of a more serious correction. The VIX, which trades in the opposite direction of the stock market, has been trading under 18 for the last three months. Normally, numbers that low warn of too much complacency in the stock market which is a caution signal. However, it takes an upturn in the VIX to signal lower stock prices. It peaked over 40 during the second half of 2002 as the bottom bottomed and has been in a downtrend since then. The breaking of the down trendline suggests that the trend of the VIX is turning higher. If history is any guide, the VIX usually climbs into the 35-40 region before the market finds an important bottom. The fact that it's still in the low 20s suggests that there's more upside to come in the VIX and more downside in the market.

Thanks ... Ken Wilson




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