Replies to post #574 on Nokia Corporation (NOK)

[extelecom]

CEBIT-Move over 3G, here comes WiMAX
Friday March 19, 8:06 am ET
By Lucas van Grinsven, European Technology Correspondent

HANOVER, Germany, March 19 (Reuters) - Just when mobile operators are finally getting their costly third-generation (3G) networks up and running, a new wireless technology pushed by the computer industry is about to mess things up.
At stake are tens of billions of euros in mobile telecoms revenues, as semiconductor giant Intel (NasdaqNM:INTC - News) is putting its formidable weight behind WiMAX, a powerful wireless technology that gives fixed-line telecoms carriers a weapon to hit back at the mobile rivals who have long been eating into their voice revenues.

WiMAX, an industry standard that travels under the alternative name "802.16", and is also backed by Finland's mobile phones and networks vendor Nokia (NOK1V.HE), offers lightning fast wireless data communications over distances as far as 50 kilometres.

Compare that with the first 3G networks which, although much faster than today's mobile phone networks, are 30 times slower than WiMAX, and one 3G radio mast covers an area 10 times smaller than WiMAX.

But mobile phone companies have shelled out 100 billion euros for radio frequency licences to run 3G networks and are currently spending tens of billions on the networks. WiMAX radio spectrum can be free, and carriers need fewer base stations to operate it.

Operators who do not yet have a mobile network can start one at low cost, using their fully amortised fixed-line networks to connect the wireless traffic to the Internet, and start grabbing back revenues that have leaked away to mobile rivals.

Analysys Research in Britain sees revenues from phone calls over the fixed networks dropping by 20 percent over the next six years, partly because of more calls going wireless.

"It's a marvellous opportunity for fixed-line operators. One has to assume that WiMAX is a disruptive technology," Adrian Nemcek, the head of Motorola's (NYSE:MOT - News) wireless infrastructure division, told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of electronics trade show CeBIT.

WiMAX is such a hot topic that Intel's executive board discusses its progress as much as three times a week, and by 2006 plans to start building it into its chip platforms, which power around 80 percent of all personal computers.

Nemcek believes WiMAX will be reality for many consumers in three to four years.

"By the time you see real market momentum, it will be 2007 or 2008. That gives 3G three years to get its business better established," he said.

EVERYTHING WILL BE INTERNET

The mobile phone industry embraced 3G because it promised better quality voice calls, similar to fixed-line calls, alongside faster data connections for multimedia services such as video, e-mail downloads, music and interactive games.

WiMAX is designed for data only, instead of voice and data, but this is becoming less relevant now that operators and telecoms makers are keen to move voice calls completely onto the Internet, using the Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) technology, in an attempt to simplify to one IP network and dramatically cut costs.

"The cost per bit of traffic has to come down. We have to go for some very significant changes," Nemcek said.

Merrill Lynch estimates that 80 percent of all calls are made from within buildings or campuses, where WiMAX and its close-range sibling Wi-FI work best. It points at Britain's Dartmouth College where students are offered free local and national calls by using the Wi-Fi Internet there.

"The longer 3G is delayed, the greater opportunity for Wi-Fi services to gain traction," it said in a recent note.

France's leading mobile operator France Telecom (Paris:FTE.PA - News) has recognised that it will have to run a plethora of different networks, including 3G, Wi-Fi and other emerging wireless networks.

"We were a company that ran a network, and we're turning into a company that is offering services to customers using the best network available for the job," France Telecom Chief Executive Thierry Breton said at CeBIT.

In order to cater to such customers, Motorola is planning to give operators integrated radio access networks that can handle 3G, Wi-Fi, WiMAX and possible future wireless versions. It believes WiMAX will first emerge in the United States, and later in Asia and Europe.

[Eric]

Nokia's CeBIT 2004 Exhibition Update for Investors

Slacker,

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=NOK&script=1010&item_id=865776

Whew! Tough accoustics from the podium. It required some worthwhile concentration to get through the presentations, but things seemed to improve by the time we got to the 2nd Q&A.

<< Interesting to see a large emphasis on HSDPA during the Networks presentation. >>

Yes. Enough of that "forklift upgrade" horse puckey. <g>

Juha Putkiranta's (Imaging, Multimedia) substance was good, appropriate for the venue, even necessarry given the new corporate structure and his divisions charter, but nothing particularly new was revealed. In Q&A I thought his comments on clamshell form factor suitability for camera phones was interesting, as were comments on video calling and phases of evolution of imaging phones.

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/NOK/cebit/putkiranta.pdf

I thought the Mobile Enhancements presentation by Janne Jormalainen was fresh, interesting, and well done. Nice revenue opportunitty. Good Vision.

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/NOK/cebit/jormalainen.pdf

I thought Kai Konola's (Networks) presentation (accoustics and a fast pace aside) was absolutely excellent. He really covered some fresh material, and I thought he did a fine job with Q&A and the accoustics improved and he slowed the pace of delivery. He proacted to questions that might otherwise have moved to Q&A on Nokia's strategy on early implemntation of PoC. All in all, very imformative, IMO.

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/NOK/cebit/konola.pdf

Here are abstracts of a few of Kai's slides amongst several interesting ones:

GSM Renewal 
                                                                      · 
 • MSC Server in deliveries 
                                                                      · 
 • EDGE hardware deliveries to more than 65 customers in 35 countries  
                                                                      · 
 • 25 public EDGE references 
                                                                      · 
 • Nokia has delivered network to 10 out of 13 commercial EDGE launches 
                                                                      · 
 EDGE speeds up the GSM Network Modernizations Case 
                                                                      · 
 • EDGE bitrates can increasethe multimedia usage 
                                                                      · 
 • Lower cost per bit with EDGE  
                                                                      · 
 Modernization of GSM  
                                                                      · 
 • Improved coverage 
                                                                      · 
 • New Nokia GSM/EDGE BSS can deliver upto 15% more voice minutes from 
   day one compared to the old BSS  
                                                                      · 
 From GSM to Multiradio 3GSM Networks 
                                                                      · 
 • Education on end users to new multimedia services with EDGE speeds 
   up the WCDMA success 
                                                                      · 
 • EDGE can be used as coverage complement to WCDMA 
                                                                      · 
 Highest Data Rates and Capacity with WCDMA boosted by HSDPA 
                                                                      · 
 • High Speed Downlink Packet Access 
                                                                      · 
 --> 25-fold data rates,2-fold BTS capacity 
 --> Dynamically optimized data rates in changing radio environment 
     with new modulation introduced, 16QAM 
 --> Fast scheduling and data retransmission managed by BTS 
                                                                      · 
 • HSDPA is a simple evolution in Nokia WCDMA 
                                                                      · 
 • Nokia Advanced Indoor Radio is ready for HSDPA from the beginning 
                                                                      · 
 Nokia Advanced Indoor Radio 
                                                                      · 
 • Introduction of remote unit and one new plug in unit 
                                                                      · 
 • Evolution path to HSDPA indoor cell without any new AIR hardware  
                                                                      · 
 • Compliant with 3GPP specificationfor local area BTS WCDMA 
                                                                      · 
 Nokia MSC Server (3GPP Rel4) now live in operators’ networks 
                                                                      · 
 • MSC Server System is in deliveries now for GSM and WCDMA 
                                                                      · 
 • Meets requirements of both GSM and WCDMA simultaneously 
                                                                      · 
 Heres are his Summarry slides: 
                                                                      · 
 New Core Networks 
                                                                      · 
 • Nokia first withPoC, infra shipping, terminal shipping in 2Q 
                                                                      · 
 • 4 commercial push-to-talk deals announced 
  
 • PoC trials with 30 customers globally 
                                                                      · 
 • Intelligent Content Delivery integrated by 15 Nokia customers 
   worldwide 
                                                                      · 
 • Nokia IP Multimedia Subsystem, trialled globally, available 2Q/2004  
                                                                      · 
 WCDMA 3G 
                                                                      · 
 • T-Mobile Netherlands adding Nokia customers to 39•16 commercial  
   networks, 8 supplied by Nokia 
                                                                      · 
 Nokia Networks - attacking new growth opportunites 
                                                                      · 
 • Mobile operators increasingly active  
                                                                      · 
 • Selected infrastructure segments offer growth opportunities 
                                                                      · 
 • Nokia in strong position to address such segments 
                                                                      · 
 • New core networks•GSM modernization and new growth markets 
                                                                      · 
 • 3G radio network with WCDMA and EDGE 
                                                                      · 
 • Network related services including outsourcing 
                                                                      · 
 • Targeting market share gains by broader product portfolio and  
   better market coverage. 

###

- Eric -

[Eric]

DISAPPOINTING

Reuters said:

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp;:4058c063:986fb4294cf4557?type=technologyNews&loc...

Nokia has traditionally used CeBIT to launch a raft of new phones, making Wednesday's meagre offerings from the sector leader disappointing for some.

"I am surprised they only launched one product. I expected a lot more," said analyst Ben Wood at research firm Gartner. "There is more in the pipeline, but they have to launch more phones to maintain their leadership."

Analyst Karri Rinta at Finland's Evli Securities said Nokia could be holding back to launch phones at the CTIA 2004 technology fair in Atlanta next week.

"(But today) was a bit of an anti-climax as I was expecting to be dazzled by new products," he said.

First time I've agreed with Ben Wood for a while, but Nokia launched a batch late last year they now have to deliver.

I am really wondering what is coming at CTIA.

- Eric -