Replies to post #63332 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[rmarchma]

Wilco re possible good quarter and guidance

I don't really expect IDCC to provide positive guidance for a particular quarter prior to earnings release. They pretty much admit to not having any additional insights for a given quarter, until after they receive the quarterly sales reports from the licensees. I would imagine that most licensees have up to at least one month after the end of a quarter to get their sales reports into IDCC. This gets real close to the 45 day period to release the quarterly earnings reports, except for the last quarter of the year.

However it would seem to me that if Fagan really had a lot on the ball, he would be in contact with his financial cohorts at IDCC's major licensees to obtain informal monthly royalty-bearing sales data. Surely the major licensees track this information internally on a monthly basis. I don't know for sure whether Fagan does or has tried to do this or not. Just based on some of his comments in the CC, it doesn't appear that he makes contact with the licensees during the quarter.

[jai]

Good chance we go to or over $20 after May's CC.

Some of our share price problem can stem from poor wall street communication skills but most of the current price problem is based on the arbitrage situation from Nokia. I firmly beleive a Nokia/Sam resolution will add $20 a share to the stock price.
When the time table was move the Nokia/Sam revenue was removed from the price. If you look at some of the takeover situations where there is doubt then you will see a large difference is price of buyout vs. trading price. (HAND/PLMO).

IMO, The $27 share price represented $21 a share ($110 mil yearly revenues) for last quarters revenue stream and $6 a share for the Nokia settlement.

At $100 million a year in revs $20 a share is fair market value. By May's CC our revenues should be back in the range of $26 to $28 million which would justify a $20+ price tag.

This stock is currently being punished. It currently has $0 dollars for Nokia and $0 dollars for Samsung priced in.

The rolling 12 month arbitration comments hurt us. I think they still need to shift from thinking like lawyers to thinking like public company leaders.

Lawyers need to be right. They get paid to argue their points and must always appear that what they say is correct. This technique doesn't work so well on the street. The analyst need room. By giving the standard 12 month answer they put the analyst at risk because they were forced to include Nokia revenue in 2004. What IDCC should have done was give a 12 to 18 or a 12 to 24 month range. That would leave the projection of revenues at the discretion of the analyst. Then they could decide whether they would put the Nokia revs in 2004 or 2005.

So now we got a bunch of analyst that need to change all of their 2004 projections. We also have a management team not sorry for bad guidance. This is a very sore point.

The way the game is played is using wide ranges both in revenue recognition and time tables. By using wide ranges the analyst gets to pick the high or low end based on what they feel will happen. If the estimate falls within the company range (12 to 24 months for arb) they the company has guided the analyst properly and the analyst is at fault for being too aggressive.

I'm extremely bullish and confident that by this time next year this stock will be $50+. I beleive that these guys are learning (no insider sales is a big plus) and that these mistakes are correctable. The mistakes cause a short term price drops but in the long term contracts and 3G revenue streams will cause the stock to rise based on fundamentals.