Replies to post #115516 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[balance_builder]

Meant to include this dot:

Oilphant posted:

"Posted by: oilphant
In reply to: None Date:9/26/2007 9:04:56 AM
Post #of 115516

BB:What could a minnow do with a 150 million?"


Coincidently, pick number 2 07 year end report shows:

1) Cash and cash equivalents 96,163,000.00

2) The FCMB US$50 million loan provides further
flexibility in the continued build-up of Afren’s West
African portfolio.

Add em up (1. & 2. above) and you come incredibly close to Oily's $150 million figure.

[tryoty]

I have reason to believe acquiring a producing property will be the first thing we see. I don't know that Afren shareholders would be too keen on printing shares for a swap of this magnitude.

My gut says Offor intends to get some production online before hitting the motherload in the JDZ and EEZ. Wall Street would like that, a tiny oil producing company that strikes a billion barrel find...

Wall Street would like that a LOT.

[petemantx]

Is what AFREN has in assets equal to what ERHC has in potential in re: to JDZ and EEZ to validate an equal swap of shares? I took a quick look at their current properties and they don't look like they have anywhere near what we could have if exploration results are what we are expecting. Is current production that important as opposed to waiting possibly only a year or so or would the sum of the merger be far greater than the parts?

[Nightdaytrader]

Balance, well, one good thing about Afren is that the company has some big time shareholders like JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and UBS (see below).

Not that I really want to merge with a Nigerian Company but if we're going to do it, it's nice to see the big financial companies also invested.....

ND9
*********************************************

AFREN plc ('the Company')

Shareholding in the Company

The Company was notified on 9 January 2008 that, as at close of business on 8
January 2008, JP Morgan Chase & Co had an interest with indirect voting rights
in 13,833,108 Ordinary Shares of 1p each ('Ordinary Shares') in the Company,
representing 5.07% of the total issued share capital of the Company.

Holdings by controlled undertakings of JPMorgan Chase & Co are as follows:

JP Morgan Investment Management Inc
JP Morgan Asset Management (UK) Limited

10 January 2008
********************************************
AFREN plc ('the Company')

Shareholding in the Company

The Company was notified on 14 December 2007 that, as at close of business on 12
December 2007, Morgan Stanley Securities Limited, had an interest with direct
voting rights in 31,986,321 Ordinary Shares of 1p each ('Ordinary Shares') in
the Company, representing 11.71% of the total issued share capital of the
Company.

17 December 2007

[jbofthecloth]

1:1? Afren is priced at 113.5p and a market cap of about 310 million pounds ($610 million). 113.5p is about $2.24 US. A stock swap would be on about a 1 Afren for 10 ERHC ($2.24/$0.21=10.64). A stock swap is exactly that. Since the shareholders maintain a portion of the company that is acquired there is very little premium.

A swap would see Afren issue about 72 million shares for ERHC. The New Afren would have 345 million outstanding with ERHC shareholders owning about 21%, a market cap of $773 million. 21% of $773 million is $162 million (an 8% premium to our current $150 million market cap).

A stock swap makes good sense as there is no willingness for current ERHC shareholders to sell out and lose any potential upside, we'd get good management, get our assets out of the US and potentially a small premium.

Let's hope.

[Spec29]

I do not return Afren's phone call with...

a 1 for 1 share swap proposal. When they get to around 25 to 1, I'll start listening.

I'll take option 5, stand pat and wait for the bit to turn.

[balance_builder]

Exciting days ahead IMHO. An AFREN tie-up is looking to be more and more likely (thanks to board imput by a select few individuals}. My hunch is a piece of big news will surface prior to the Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference which begins February 18, 2008.

Here are some recent dots:


ERHC Energy Sponsors NOG 2008


Tue, 22 Jan 2008 00:00:00


http://www.nigeriamasterweb.com/paperfrmes.html

This year’s Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) conference, which usually provides the forum for operators and investors in the hydrocarbon industry around the world to interact and share ideas and knowledge on new trends and practices, is scheduled for February 18-21, 2008.

Lead sponsor of the event billed for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, will be the Houston-based ERHC Energy Incorporated, an independent oil and gas company with assets spanning the Gulf of Guinea.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26186664

........lead sponser. No wonder ERHC is making such a big deal out of this conference with PR and full mention in the recent CC. It IS a big deal. What a great time to share.


This from ERHC's PR on the Oil and Gas Conference:

ERHC Energy Prepares for Nigeria Oil & Gas 2008
Monday January 14, 5:23 pm ET


HOUSTON, TX--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 14, 2008 -- ERHC Energy Inc. (OTC BB:ERHE.OB - News), an independent oil and gas company with assets in the Gulf of Guinea, is sponsoring Nigeria Oil & Gas 2008 and will be exhibiting at the event, which runs from February 18-21, 2008.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080114/0348307.html


Lil' ole AFREN had some pertinent news yesterday in the form of three regulatory filings. You may want to review the 1-22-08 0700, 0703 and 1522 filings:

http://www.afren.com/RegulatoryFilings.asp

Pay special attention to the location of Afrens interests. Hmmm...shallow water? Sounds familiar. Thanks Oilphant. $150 million could probably buy up significant gas potential in SEO's stomping grounds. I like the fact that Morgan Stanley continues to buy......and now owns over 12% of AFREN.
Also, this piece following AFRENS news yesterday is interesting:

"Afren has this morning anounced that it has entered into a co-operation agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas AG (the German utility) and African LNG Holdings (a private company linked to Afren led by Theo Oerlemans, the former CEO of Nigeria
LNG) to investigate the availability and accessibility of gas in Nigeria, with a focus on the Anambra Basin and South Eastern regions. The parties have the intention to jointly develop, collect and monetise the gas for domestic and
export purposes in line with the Nigerian Government's 2008 Gas Master Plan.The Agreement includes an analysis of potential feedgas, based on an identified
target list of upstream gas rich assets and a study of gas gathering infrastructure and potential LNG export solutions. The parties will subsequently decide on jointly establishing corporate structures and funding arrangements.

We view this morning's anouncement extremely positively. It would apear that Afren is aiming to access a host of multi-Tcf gas opportunities in Nigeria, leveraging Eon's execution and midstream skills to commercialise this gas. If
this JV were to progress as planned we would expect the partners (Afren, Eon and African LNG holdings) to anounce the acquistion of signficant gas reserves and the commencemnet of an LNG FEED study within the next 18 months.

We remain strong Afren buyers, with our key investment themes contiuing to centre around: (1) well connected and proven management team; (2) strong deal pipeline likely to result in series of materially NAV accretive asset deals in
1Q/2Q08; (3) strong forecast production growth; and (4) valaution, with the stock trading at a 15% disocunt to our 106p/sh NAV (core - 74p/sh, dev - 84p/sh, exploration - 22p/sh). See A competitively advantaged West African E&P at.."

The last dot is from Sfreed regarding AFRENS founder on 8-3-07:

"Best News for Offor and ERHC in a Long Time

People may have missed this, or may not have recognized the
significance, but, on August 1, Dr. Rilwanu Lukman was appointed an Honorary Advisor on Energy and Strategic Matters to the President of Nigeria.

Lukman, as we know, used to be Head of the DPR, Special Advisor to Obasanjo on Oil & Gas, Secretary General of OPEC and President of OPEC.

The releases say this is an "honorary" post, but in reality it is anything but.

In the wind is a restructuring of the DPR and NNPC based on a
proposal presented to Obasanjo a couple of years ago. Obasanjo sat on the proposal because of various vested interests that needed to be serviced before he left office. However, the new president is keen to implement the proposals to try to rid the DPR and NNPC of corruption and install people close to him in the important posts surrounding oil. Guess who is going to handle this.

The importance of this to Offor, and ultimately ERHC, is very
significant:

Lukman is VERY close to Offor. The have been associates for many years and Lukman supported and Offor and ERHC during the toughest of times in the past.

If there was even the smallest probability that ERHC's remaining rights or contracts with partners might be at risk, that has now been reduced to nearly zero.

Lukman favors relations with proper firms in the oil sector that have the commercial strength and technical expertise to develop resources and a streamilned process to do so. In the same breath, he will ensure that any local companies that have bona fide commercial agreements with such larger oil companies are protected and are encouraged to develop their expertise alongside their larger partners.

That means that ERHC's partners will be encouraged to move faster and given every opportunity to do so. It also means that ERHC will enjoy support during the life of the contracts with its partners to participate fully (not just financially) in the development of reserves.

Does this have any effect on the US problems? Not in the near term as the authorities have to go through their processes. However, as stated above, anyone who might seek to assail ERHC's rights, positions or contracts will meet with frustration and ultimate defeat.

Whether we realize it or not, this is the best news we have received in a very long time."


Lead sponser.....a planned event to be sure. Long time planned. Perhaps Peter N.'s last comment regarding buyouts at the last CC was right on the mark......"at the moment".

Off to the salt mines......