Reverse takeover?
You're right in that ERHC's asset potential far exceeds Afren's. It would be logical to think that Afren could "take over" ERHC in a share swap favorable to ERHC and keep the ERHC name.
We'd get Afren's management plus a London listing and Afren would get potential reserves that dwarf their current portfolio.
Once drilling showed the vast amounts of oil in the JDZ the combined entity would command the financial wherewithal to gobble up EEL prior to STPEEZ drilling.
GoG monster in the making?
As fun as that thought is I still think "baby steps" are more likely. The same goes for a JDZ joint venture. It's going to take 3 years or more for the operators to drill even the exploration wells in 2, 3 and 4. After that there will be appraisal wells, and only then is there enough data for the companies involved to calculate how much each would have to throw into the mix to create a new JDZ entity. Given the depth and cost of developing the JDZ I think a JV is probable, but it is many years down the road. After that ERHC still needs to work with Sao Tome and surrounding nations to create JDZ's in the overlapping territorial waters of the STPEEZ. These issues will be resolved, but not in months, and probably not in years. It'll take a decade, maybe two, but the shareholders will enjoy the ride along the way as the markets realize what we already suspect.
Relax, exceo ( :-) ), I'm not predicting that nothing will happen for decades. In fact, I think you'll be happy with your investment by YE 2008, and d@mn proud of it in 2009. However, the happy ending of the novel The Trials and Tribulations of ERHC Energy will take many, many years to develop.
JMHO.
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