Replies to post #115511 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[oil-cowboy]

I'd kill to know what Chevron found out about the JDZ in OBO1. They know what the JDZ has, or have an excellent idea.

All your scenarios are viable IMO. Your also correct that you can't disregard the quiet 800lbs gorrila sitting quietly in the corner. Their nation is to hungry to let a potential monster field pass. Especially when their already an operator.

Our time will come, and its gonna be sweet.

[texsun2003]

BB, thanks one more time for your continued DD and dot connecting. Four viable possibilities IMHO. Maybe year six of holding and accumulating will be the one many here have been waiting for so patiently. (or not so patiently), some of us are getting pretty darn old...LOL

[balance_builder]

Time to take my pick out of the 4 presented choices with an explanation outlining "why". First the "why":

There was much talk from responsible posters about the pressure SEO was feeling from the assortment of ongoing investigations. Starcrest/Feltang etc.

On 8-12-07 SEO stepped down as COB for ERHC PR'ed to the public on 8-15-07.

On 8-24-07 (9 days following the public announcement of SEO stepping down), O.J. Chidolue, Chromes Attorney had his court orders dismissed by the court at the will of the SEC. Oilphant probably said it best that SEO picked bank bars instead of prison bars...i.e. he bargained with the US oafs.

Ok...so the stranglehold grip that SEO had on the company was forced loose in a legal manner after he held it so close for the past 6.5 years. Ouch...to be sure! Logically, SEO would want to retain his control on the company so he looks around at who he can trust and there sits one of his most trusted friends.....on the BOD of another smallish start up oil company.

Hmmm....goes SEO....if I could make a deal with them, I could retain all my upside to our fantastic assets and let a professionally run management team leverage them in the market. They are slated to begin producing their first barrels of oil Q1 08 and are projected to be producing 15,000 to 20,000 barrels by mid 2008. The market likes it when a start up begins producing its product and has an actual cash flow. If I make a deal now, said production will boost my value as we wait for rigs of opportunity to begin drilling our great assets. Besides, I totally trust my brother and he and I can work together with our huge number of political contacts and add even more to the bottom line. First, my brother will want me to clean house so I best do some serious house cleaning. I'll quickly scoot that pesky Lakeshore Capital to the side and I better settle up with Godsonic as the SEC apparently is serious as Akin has been telling me for some time now.

BB talking again: If I elect to believe that SEO was pressured to step down (and I do believe this based on the timeliness of O.J.'s action being dismissed) then I believe he would feel the safest by putting his hard earned holdings into the hands of one of his closest friends, Rilwana Lukman. This, coupled with the fact that big institutional money has been buying this company despite the fact that they appear to be at or past fair value.....leads me to believe that big money, once again, is ahead of the general market in knowing the forward game plan. That, however, is never a surprise.

According to one poster, SEO has been offered up to $2 for his shares and he rejected! :

"What has to be considered is that every offer for ERHE shares incorporates an implicit value for Offor’s oil. I know that Offor had at least 3 offers from a Middle Eastern group of investors (not Brandhuber's Millenium!). The last one was a staged proposal with an increasing share price reflecting the state of advancement of exploration and development.

Offor said no to all of them, including a proposal of USD 2 per share. According to my really conservative calculations, USD 2 means an implicit offer to pay approximately USD 1 for a barrel probable (everybody can plug in his own numbers)."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24410702

Afren currently sells at approximately $2.26 per share. More importantly, serious upside potential would come from a share swap here.


All said, I opt, as my first choice for:

2. ERHC is scooped up in a share swap deal with AFREN. Since ERHC and Addax are at odds on the Godsonic 9% it places some doubt in my mind that an Addax/ERHC deal is in play. Also, if SEO's stepping down as COB is SEC related, SEO would feel comfortable with his buddy, Lukman, taking control of his holdings and he would still feel the upside of his investment and have even stronger political connections going forward. AFREN's current price is about right IMHO for a 1:1 shareswap.

[Nightdaytrader]

Petrobras giving keynote address at Offshore West Africa Conference Jan 29 - 31, 2008, Abuja, Nigeria.

http://owa08.events.pennnet.com/fl//index.cfm

ND9

[redinvest]

Balance,

I tend to agree with your (2) choice of Afren and Lukman. That combination would own a big chunk of the GOG deep and ultradeep. A 1/1 swap would only work if both entities had the same number of OS. Thus, SEO may have to retire a chunk of his personal shares for other consideration, .... so that the share counts are even. I would love to own Afren shares, knowing they own ERHE's rights.

The wildcard is China. They would probably only be considered on a large buyout.

Roll the dice,

red

[Nightdaytrader]

BB: STP EEZ, Sonangol, Petrobras consortium

Balance Builder - Regarding option #3, I think there is another possibility associated with the Sao Tome EEZ. I've found some older articles, and a recent one, that indicates the Sao Tome Principe Govt wants a consortium, but the consortium they want is tied to Portuguese language speaking countries. I don't think STP feels they got a fair deal with Nigeria so they are looking elsewhere for EEZ help.

Article below says STP wants a STP, Angola's Sonangol, Brazil's Petrobras, and maybe Portugal's GALP consortium.

Here is a recent article, and then a couple of older ones, that talk about the STP proposed relationship. Maybe Petrobras, who's also listed here in USA, buys out ERHC and then they have parts of the EEZ and JDZ.

Oh, well, I might just be dreaming again on a Sunday morning...

ND9
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AFRICA ENERGY INTELLIGENCE n°454 - 19/12/2007
STATE-OWNED COMPANIES
Cooperating with Angola

The brand new oil agency in Sao Tome e Principe, Petrogas , is scheduled to sign a cooperation pact with Angola’s Sonangol in the first quarter of 2008. (...) [ 84 words ] [ $1,5 ]
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Angola, Sao Tome to cooperate over oil exploration 2008

Dec 01, 2007 (BBC Monitoring via COMTEX) -- Luanda, 01 Dec - Sao Tome and Principe's Natural Resources and Environment Minister Manuel de Deus Lima said in Luanda today that his country intends to cooperate with the National Angolan Fuel Company, Sonangol in the area of oil exploration.
Speaking to Angop at the 4 February International Airport before returning to his country, Lima said that the concretization of the idea only needs, among others, the appointment of responsible agencies.
According to Lima, who was in Angola for the 6th Angola-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Commission meeting, in order to legalize this process, his country is making small changes to the oil legislation to allow for direct negotiations.
"As soon as these obstacles are overcome, we will move ahead to the signing of an agreement between Sonangol and Petrogas, possibly during the first quarter of 2008 during my Angolan counterpart Desiderio Costa's visit to Sao Tome and Principe," he said.
In his view, the partnership with Sonangol will be very beneficial for his sector, as the Angolan company has enormous experience in oil exploration.
Currently, Sao Tome's oil region is divided into two zones, namely the joint zone with Nigeria and the exclusive economic zone.
"With regard to the joint zone with Nigeria, we have already auctioned five blocs. As to the exclusive economic zone, we are finalizing its division into blocs, before moving on to the promotional phase, and the auction of some or all blocs, an issue yet to be defined," he explained.
Source: Angop news agency website, Luanda, in Portuguese 1 Dec 07
BBC Mon AF1 AFEausaf 041207/mm
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Angola to explore São Tomé oil
afrol News, 31 October - It is now official that Angola will take part in oil exploration in the São Tomé and Príncipe's economic exclusive area after the two countries' companies signed a partnership agreement. This was announced by the Prime Minister of São Tomé and Príncipe, Tome Vera Cruz.
"We have signed a protocol for the oil sector and there is a memorandum between our national oil agency and Sonangol, but we want to go further so that by forming partnerships we can work together on oil exploration," 'Macauhub' quoted Mr Vera Cruz as saying.

This development came after Mr Vera Cruz had concluded a three-day official visit to Angola. He used the trip to boost bilateral cooperation with Angolan authorities.

He said soon technical teams in the oil sector from both countries would find ways of developing partnerships and bring them to fruition.

Prime Minister Vera Cruz added that his country has two pending debts with Angola, the recent being the result of good relationship between the two countries.

In relation to the other debt, which is older and bilateral, PM Vera Cruz said that he had discussed the issue with the Angolan authorities, "within the framework of the debt pardon to be negotiated with the Paris Club."

A commission involving members from both countries is scheduled to meet in December to analyse new forms of bilateral cooperation between the two countries.

Earlier, São Tomé and Príncipe invited investors from booming Angola to enter his country, which would expedite partnerships between the two countries in various fields. He made the appeal during a visit to Angola upon receiving invitation from his counterpart, President Fernando Dias dos Santos.

In his meeting with Angolan investors in Luanda, Prime Minister Vera Cruz called for greater dynamics among investors and pledged fiscal incentives on investments in his country.

Prime Minister Vera Cruz said there are several business opportunities in his country in addition to the oil sector, which propitiate a public-private partnership among people from both countries.

The government of São Tomé earlier has focused on getting fellow Portuguese speaking nations to invest in its promising oil sector, but failed so far. An agreement of intentions with Brazilian President Lula da Silva failed to materialise in an engagement by Brazil's large state-owned oil company Petrobras.
By staff writer
© afrol News