Replies to post #33645 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Snackman]

Question SPIN, if Dell came out and said they will equip their units with TCs in the next six months or if Intel came out and said they are going to deploy many more boards with Wave, do think the price will go above $5.24?

And if that happened, do you think they will have any trouble raising more money if they need it?

[Weby]

Of course you might be right, but past isn't always future.

As a lawyerly example...study the career of one Abe Lincoln until around 1858. Times and circumstances change.

In addition, one doesn't have to do a Microsoft to generate huge shareholder returns on a base of under 100 million shares.
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1) it's possible that Wave can earn a half buck or so per TPM from the ones deployed by NSM & on INTC 865s, but that is definitely NOT the biz that wavoids dreamt of for the last decade & a half (what Snack calls "a few years").

But it is a biz and half a buck on a billions of devices isn't a bad way to begin a services company. The glass ain't empty yet

2) they might sell some key mgmt stuff @ $30, but given the dearth of sales to the existing IBM TPM base, it's far from a certitude & the early results strongly suggest otherwise.

My client hasn't committed a crime YET, your honor!!! Your thinking like a lawyer and lawyers kill innovative businesses.
The IBM lack of sales is troubling, but certainly not definitive. Most are sold to individuals and the sales push from IBM has not started. Let's wait to see how the IBM Wave relationship develops after the Cannady/Allen presentation. Lark is working here for the TCG group to talk about how things work for IT managers. I'm not sure what you know about how technology grows... but my impression is that you have trapped youself into a history of looking for corporate villians and will not rest until you find them --- kinda like that other lawyer Ashcroft. Beware!!!!

3) as for what i think of the tech, Ramsey's point about the "sideline" biz is apt... had Wave not been swinging for the fences from day 1, they might be formidable competition for RNBO right now.

some might construe that feast or famine approach, which necessarily required an entire industry shift (instead of scoring runs w/base hits over years), hubris, or even arrogance. instead, they have burned through > qtr billion & are in at least their 3rd biz model, still beholden to approval from industry leaders & only have fumes left in the tank to climb the hill, with a grand total top line of around $1M in 15+ years.

the business does not offer the opportunities it once promised IMO & will never achieve the return some here believe... i don't believe it'll ever establish new highs, nor do i think it'll best $5.24 anytime soon... & maybe never. also think it'll be sub $1 before the end of Q2 & will eventually hafta settle the CA claims for anywhere b/tw $5 -- $20M.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda always looks rosy. They might have been a successful 100,000,000 company today had they not swung for the fences......and failed to become an integral part of a trillion dollar development. That was not the goal of Wave or most of its investors so its a straw man argument -- another lawyerly device. And another way to imply that SKS and management were incompetent.

a faint pulse assuredly remains, but necromancy might be a wavoid's only option by year's end.

covered calls or even some naked puts would be worthwhile insurance in order to a_void the risk of a total loss IMO.

Anyway I'm glad that you agree that the Spragues are neither incompetent or corrupt.... or am I just inferring incorrectly that that is your position?