Replies to post #6848 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[kris_kade]

My 2cents...I am plain dumbfounded on not seeing higher pps by now (atleast north of $1) when everything is going to be fine which is likely.

I am not sure why big institutions/funds are letting pps slide this far south especially the results are going to be out soon and will be positive.

On the partnership side, any potential pharma would be looking into long term viability/potential of transgenic platforms/GTC's patents etc. for sure. So again not sure why any such partner is not seeing value yet.

For me this is the biggest mystery for 2008

[mouton29]

I'm not sure what a "realistic" chance of failure is, but if it were a foregone conclusion that the HD trial will be successful, why is anyone waiting to finalize the partnership? Coming at from another angle, in how many cases have investors in small biotechs convinced themselves that that trial results were sure to be favorable yet the unexpected somehow happened. Obviously, the skill lies in distinguishing those cases where the chance of failure really is small from those where it is not, but I think the conviction that success is inevitable creates bad karma.

[DewDiligence]

>Does anyone realistically expect the HD trial to fail?<

Failure to show non-inferior efficacy is unlikely for the reasons mentioned in #msg-25866013.

However, the trial could conceivably fail because: i) There are serious protocol violations; or ii) Some bizarre side effect shows up in a single patient in the ATryn arm.

All told, success is likely, IMO, but it cannot be taken for granted.