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Zeev Hed

03/10/04 5:17 PM

#216092 RE: nancy2 #216084

I think the way I look at the trin is correct, when it is under 1, it simply indicates that "relatively" more volume was going into advancing issues, the selling pressure in the Naz was declining. Note also that a 5:1 ratio between advancing volume and declining volume (we had worse than that on the NYSE) is an extreme, we had 7.3 to 10:1 occurs near major bottoms, 7.3 to 1 is enough for an intermediary bounce, IMTO.
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TJ Parker

03/10/04 5:18 PM

#216093 RE: nancy2 #216084

hmm. so informally then, trin/trinq are saying something like: how much more concentrated is selling in down stocks than buying in up stocks ... roughly .... ?
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Train Guy

03/10/04 10:14 PM

#216184 RE: nancy2 #216084

Oh no, now I've got to get my calculator out and do some math. So on the Nasdaq we had 21/73=.288 and 26/70=.371 so .288/.371=.776. And the NYSE had 24/71=.338 and 11/87=.126 so .338/.126=2.68. You have to stop and realize what question are we trying to answer with the TRIN. We're not trying to determine if more stocks were going up or down, but what was the volume doing. Were we seeing greater average volume in stocks going up or stocks going down.

And you can see, the ratio of up/down stocks weren't that different, .288 to .338. But on the Nasdaq the average volume in the stocks going up was more then in stocks going down, so somebody was finding something to buy even while most stocks were going down. Where as on the NYSE, you actually had percentage wise, more stocks going up than on the Nasdaq, but there wasn't much volume on them compared to the huge volume on those going down. You could say they were only nibbling on the ones going up while abandoning ship on the ones going down.

As a daytrading indicator, especially playing the indices, I use it as a which way should I lean indicator, and a what are they doing now indicator. Is it rising, then more selling is coming in. Is it falling, then buyers came in. Is it staying the same, like today it stayed in the 1.40-1.50 area for a while, which indicated that we were getting selling, but the amount of selling wasn't increasing compared to the buying. The longer the selling continued, the less likely a bounce was going to happen. And then at 3:00 for it to spike on up over 3, they were throwing everything overboard. We did get a little bargin hunting into the close as it came back down some.