Replies to post #56641 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

"I’ll restrict my opinions to the share price at the end of 2008"

Case 1: 35%
2: 30%
3: 35%
4: 0%

Actually, it is simpler to state Case 1 or 2: 65%
Case 3 : 35%

[DewDiligence]

MNTA – Thanks, Jon, for your feedback. Your numbers are lower than mine across the board, so maybe should ought to drink more eggnog!

>Case 1 Odds 10% (price $35 as you will never know that TEVA/Ampha got denied so always will be a discount)<

Actually, investors will know with near certainty whether Teva and Amphastar get approval for generic Lovenox. How will we know? I’ll make this a quiz :-)

>E. Disagree - actually agree as I think odds are ONLY one in three.<

You aren’t really agreeing or disagreeing because I didn’t hazard a guess as to whether MNTA will be bought out in 2008. Rather, I assumed MNTA will not be bought in order to simplify the case-by-case valuation analysis. Regards, Dew