Biotech Values

[Jonathan Robinson]

As requested, my thoughts on your analysis.

A. Expected. They may try to speed things up though given what is going on in generic land. Does raise question of resources as generics were supposed to fund M118.

B. No go until mid 2009 earliest.

C. Agreed unless they do a deal on M118 involving shares.

D. Agreed.

E. Disagree - actually agree as I think odds are ONLY one in three.

Case 1 Odds 10% (price $35 as you will never know that TEVA/Ampha got denied so always will be a discount)
Case 2 Odds 5% (price $20)
Case 3 Odds 85% (price $6-10 depending on market)
Case 4 Oddx 0% this year although I guess something analogous could come out of meeting (at most 5%) - initial price drop back to $5 or so

This puts my target range in $10-13 area. I put such low odds on all outcomes other than status quo given the politics, the slow timing to date, etc.

Jon