MNTA: Although I am not in it for the buy-out thesis, (rather, the value proposition) I cannot fathom many scenarios where NVS shouldn't purchase MNTA outright by Fall, 2008. Further, any such scenarios imply that MNTA will perform quite well regardless:
1. M-Enox approved by FDA and is the sole generic; MNTA market cap becomes "somewhat" prohibitive for acquirer.
The acquisition possibility becomes more likely with any one or more of the below occurring by Fall 2008:
1. M-Enox approved by FDA but is 1 of 2 or 3 generics/or the application is still pending with no other generics approved.
2. M118 data comes in positive
3. Copaxone ANDA filed with FDA/EU
4. M-Enox filed with EU
In addition to MNTA's cash balance by Fall, Sandoz(NVS) owes milestones and substantial royalties/rev splits going forward. The "potential" milestone cash alone exceeds MNTA's current enterprise value.
In other words, imo, MNTA's market cap must rise... unless they fall flat on every count.
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