Replies to post #14084 on The Black Box

[WinLoseOrDraw]

i think it's more likely Bush will put a man on mars than for greenspan to raise rates anytime soon.

[ranch hand]

bits: I agree about the rates, but I believe Greenie thinks a one-time pop here will actually stimulate the economy by getting corporate borrowers to get off the dime and borrow $$$! It could also lower LT rates below 5% and stimulate more J6P borrowing! Ya Think???? RANCH

[wahz]

bits, is there a way to do your channel on a daily so we can follow it, and see where the lower line is? We seem to be riding that line better than I would have thought, but that could change in an hour. I am just curious where it is at on a daily is all. If you can't thats ok.

For those who haven't followed me on this: my theory is that we went through a twice per century event with the bubble and popping of the bubble. Therefore, I have constructed a channel that suggests that: the Oct 98 low was a significant one; the bubble began not until Dec 98; it was fully popped by April 01, making that the next significant low; and the reaction to 9/11 caused the break below the channel, and should be ignored, as should the bubble. The channel is constructed using this idea, that the bubble and post 9/11 period should be ruled out. Note that there is more to it than this, but I have discussed this before, ie, the dow/nas ratio is critical to predicting the period of the bubble and overeaction to it, and its is important that the time outside the channel is nearly equal.