the bond futures trading pit is littered with the corpses of people who shorted bonds when we hit 1%. "where can rates go but up?" they were heard asked. right before taking their last financial breath.
oops.
eventually shorting the 10-year will pay huge, but probably not before nobody wants to, lol.
in edit: ding! just covered 1/4 of the NDX short. still holding 1/2 long Dow, 1/4 long SPX, 3/4 short NDX
Greenspan has not even started changing the language from the meetings yet, and that will have to happen first. All reports indicate he will not make the same mistakes he made in the early 90s. He will probably want to telegraph his moves to the market, long before the hikes. No surprises to tip us back into recession.
Plus, raising rates will be much more difficult then it was in the early 90s. There are a ton of interest rate swaps right now, and no one knows what affect raising rates will have on these.
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