Joe, I got a good chuckle over your reply. Especially about the uses for the newly freed desk space! Let me address your points:
It is hard to take these numbers seriously. Is edlin and App? Is something like IpConfig an app? What about a custom app written for one company only? Is it counted?
You figured out the secret behind my prediction. Yes, when you want to goose the number of apps ported, counting every trivial utility is par for the course. I think a lot of trivial stuff was already done when MS released their Itanium version, and they account for many of the 1000 apps ported. I'd be surprised if there were even 100 useful, complex applications running on Itanium. Heck, maybe less than 50.
That makes my prediction a no-brainer.
To test your theory, type this message on your remote control.
Remote controls & interfaces will obviously have to improve. However, I did say that the remote will be the main input into a converged digital TV/PC. For long text messages a keyboard will be better, but that will be a secondary input device. Almost everything will be menu driven from a remote.
I would cetainly hate this cubicle, because I like to adjust the distance and angle of my monitor.
I was just at Best Buy yesterday looking at flat screen TVs that were mounted on angle-adjustable wall mounts. Certainly one can make a mount with an adjustable arm so that you will get much more control over the monitor position than with a CRT!
As far as keyboard drawers, I absolutely despise those.
Me, too. I don't think anyone will be forced to use a keyboard draw - I was just pointing out that the typical desktop will not require any room for computer components.
"Oh - Intel's biggest revenue product will not be Itanium or P4. It will be TV electronics."
If true, Intel would surely be a good short candidate.
Maybe so. It depends on how well they do in the converged market.
Let me state something here which will not make me popular on an AMD board: By the end of the decade the size of the microprocessor pie will be smaller. Units will be up, but prices will be down even more. I think that AMD will have a larger portion of a shrinking pie, but if Intel can successfully transition away from a dependence on processors then they will be the winner. (That is a big 'if'. I am far from convinced they can pull it off.)
Then why do I hold AMD shares long?
I project that AMD will grow revenue and profit because their piece of the pie will grow faster than the shrinkage in the whole darn thing, at least over the next few years. Ultimately AMD will have to move beyond processors and flash, but there is a lot of profit to be made between now and then. AMD has time to make a lot of money from server processors before the game is done.
(Note that the profit game is already over for desktop processors overall, which is why I am glad that AMD is focussed on servers and laptops.)
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