sgolds,
2. Application porting will stall at around 1500 apps ported. Some apps ported from the x86 market will start to age as newer versions are ported to AMD64.
It is hard to take these numbers seriously. Is edlin and App? Is something like IpConfig an app? What about a custom app written for one company only? Is it counted?
3. Wide adoption (finally) of HDTV will smooth the transition of the home PC to a $100 entertainment box, and the remote control will be the main input mechanism. $500 entertainment servers will supply content (games, movies, etc.) to multiple entertainment centers in the home. PowerPC and Athlon64/Pentium64 derivatives will dominate this market. Unique PC monitors will be history. (Prices are in constant dollars, HDTV sold seperately.).
To test your theory, type this message on your remote control.
Office PCs will be be based on Athlon64/Pentium64 and will be built into flat- & wide-screen monitors, hung on the cubicle wall. If one places the keyboard on a keyboard tray then the PC will take zero desktop space.
I would cetainly hate this cubicle, because I like to adjust the distance and angle of my monitor. As far as keyboard drawers, I absolutely despise those. Beides, mouse is an important input device as well, and it needs to be close to the keyboard.
And what exactly would I do with this newly reclaimed desktop space? To handwrite things on paper? To eat lunch?
Oh - Intel's biggest revenue product will not be Itanium or P4. It will be TV electronics.
If true, Intel would surely be a good short candidate.
Joe
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