NT: Re: I base my optimism on the sense I have that ASIC production will be underway by the time of the Annual Meeting.
You may be right, since you did not say *which* year you were referring to. If you mean this year, though, I don't see it as even a remote possibility that an ASIC could be in production by late summer.
...it typically takes 10 months to go from a finalized, working FPGA to volume production of an ASIC. That is not something I made up - it is typical of the industry. Not only that, it is typical of companies that are *experienced* in the industry. NVEI, having never designed and produced a chip ever before, is likely to take longer.
You don't have to take my word for it, but I urge you to not take the company's word for it either. I have heard people say that the company said it could be done in 3 or 4 months. While I suppose it is true that under *perfect* circumstances, a simple ASIC could be produced in that time frame, it is not likely that NVEI could get their first ever chip done in such short order. Just look at how long it has taken them (and is still taking them) to complete the FPGA that they first said would be completed in 2002. Their track record does not lend itself to believing they can excel at ASIC production.
It is unrealistic to expect an ASIC to be designed, mapped, sampled, tested and spun in less than about 10 months. Under ideal circumstances, i.e. enough money and a completed FPGA, NVEI would still be unlikely to get an ASIC into production before 2005.
Hmmmm. I seem to remember that I said the exact same thing at about this time last year, *and* the year before as well.
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