Spoke - Deja vu..... scary stuff. And yet the goal of winning the lottery continues for many (but a declining many)... remember the old saying, "Speed Kills".... I say "Dilution and Lack of Performance Kills", and we have both in mass quantities in NVI. Whatever they ultimately do - even the most ideal outcome - whatever the share value could have been it's now a fraction of that number. If you once thought $50, think $5 at best, even with $100-200 million in revenue. I have heard more than one person say that a certain NVI board member has gone on record, off the record (wink wink) suggesting NVI will be lucky to ever hit $4, even if everything works out. I have to add that this individual also says NVI has the technology. So we have that going for us - but it appears the reality is - even insiders don't see gold-lined streets as they once claimed was our right and destiny. Those who are willing to be candid, off the record, are realistic about what 100-200 million shares outstanding does to earnings per share, and when you figure a P/E of say 35 into the picture, which I think is generous, but is also the industry avg, you simply cannot get to $5-10/share with the sorts of revenue and margin scenarios we've speculated about on this board during our more sane moments.
I'd say if you haven't avg'd down to at least $2/share, there is limited chance you're ever going to get your money back, and if the price goal is $4-5 max, then even $2/sh isn't going to get you much more than a single-double bagger. Given all the time and anguish many have put into this - that's a pretty poor return. But, then again, if I can get my money back - I'd say - thank Goodness and I'd feel fortunate indeed.
Frankly, I don't see $1+ even ideally in 2004, even with an FPGA and an ASIC in production for a 2005 release. I don't think we get to that sort of number without revenues, details of forecasts, customers, and partnerships, and most a major expansion of the mgt team and major overhaul of the board.
Bill
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