LOOKING BACK ============ (Explanations are at #msg-2443566)
. NEW HIGHS NYSE NASD 02/23/04 116 95 02/24/04 119 87 02/25/04 130 103 02/26/04 199 121 02/27/04 279 148 03/01/04 473 251 . NEW LOWS NYSE NASD 02/23/04 9 11 02/24/04 12 18 02/25/04 6 9 02/26/04 4 5 02/27/04 2 5 03/01/04 5 5 . VOLUME FACTOR 02/23/04 .67 02/24/04 .72 02/25/04 .61 02/26/04 .63 02/27/04 .68 03/01/04 .63 . PUT/CALL RATIO 02/23/04 .456 02/24/04 .572 02/25/04 .460 02/26/04 .434 02/27/04 .553 low QQQ action 03/01/04 .412 . COMPOSITE DAILY 10DMA 02/23/04 -7101 6541 02/24/04 -6580 4979 02/25/04 -884 3706 02/26/04 4499 2318 positive and above falling 10DMA 02/27/04 8035 2061 03/01/04 14495 3067 . CUM RANGE VALUE 02/23/04 -4109 so much for "quiet" 02/24/04 -3849 02/25/04 -774 02/26/04 929 02/27/04 2218 03/01/04 5263 . DIA INDEX POWER STRENGTH 02/23/04 106.23 .30% .02 02/24/04 105.83 .01% -.13 02/25/04 106.19 .26% .00 02/26/04 105.94 .06% -.09 02/27/04 106.07 .12% -.08 03/01/04 106.96 .74% .14 . QQQ INDEX POWER STRENGTH 02/23/04 36.45 -1.72% -.41 02/24/04 36.36 -1.86% -.34 02/25/04 36.58 -1.34% -.20 02/26/04 36.67 -1.17% -.15 02/27/04 36.57 -1.44% -.21 03/01/04 37.05 -.44% .09 . TRIN Bretz TRIN-5 02/23/04 1.21 5.47 02/24/04 1.39 6.15 02/25/04 .78 5.82 02/26/04 .90 5.77 02/27/04 1.32 5.60 03/01/04 .69 5.08 . TRINQ Bretz TRINQ-5 02/23/04 1.68 6.67 02/24/04 1.03 7.06 02/25/04 .76 6.89 02/26/04 .68 5.20 02/27/04 1.38 5.53 03/01/04 .52 4.37 . NASDAQ INDEX POWER 02/23/04 2007.52 -2.22% 02/24/04 2005.44 -2.23% 02/25/04 2022.98 -1.49% 02/26/04 2032.57 -1.18% 02/27/04 2029.82 -1.38% 03/01/04 2057.80 -.36% . DJ-30 INDEX POWER 02/23/04 10609.62 .36% 02/24/04 10566.37 .03% 02/25/04 10601.62 .28% 02/26/04 10580.14 .10% 02/27/04 10583.92 .10% 03/01/04 10678.14 .76% . DJ Bonds INDEX POWER 02/23/04 178.42 .40% 02/24/04 178.59 .44% 02/25/04 178.73 .45% 02/26/04 178.40 .35% 02/27/04 178.86 .51% 03/01/04 178.83 .46% . US Dollar INDEX POWER 02/23/04 86.91 .43% 02/24/04 86.16 -.28% 02/25/04 87.21 .73% 02/26/04 87.66 1.10% 02/27/04 87.30 .68% 03/01/04 87.42 .77% . HUI INDEX POWER 02/23/04 217.10 -4.81% 02/24/04 224.33 -1.79% 02/25/04 221.67 -2.68% 02/26/04 223.06 -2.12% 02/27/04 224.80 -1.32% 03/01/04 227.28 -.42% . NYSE INDEX POWER 02/23/04 6665.50 .77% 02/24/04 6654.88 .61% 02/25/04 6670.27 .73% 02/26/04 6677.66 .76% 02/27/04 6692.37 .84% 03/01/04 6766.56 1.60% . S&P 500 INDEX POWER 02/23/04 1140.99 .42% 02/24/04 1139.09 .25% 02/25/04 1143.67 .52% 02/26/04 1144.91 .54% 02/27/04 1144.94 .46% 03/01/04 1155.97 1.13% . McClellan INDEX 02/23/04 1525.27 02/24/04 1389.31 02/25/04 1308.87 02/26/04 1263.95 02/27/04 1260.73 03/01/04 1322.21 . VXN INDEX POWER 02/23/04 24.38 2.29% 02/24/04 24.68 3.08% 02/25/04 23.55 -.60% 02/26/04 23.10 -1.88% 02/27/04 22.84 -2.37% 03/01/04 22.54 -3.11% . VXO INDEX POWER 02/23/04 15.93 -.97% 02/24/04 15.82 -1.14% 02/25/04 14.99 -5.19% 02/26/04 14.65 -6.60% 02/27/04 14.76 -5.28% 03/01/04 14.18 =8.20% . XGLD INDEX POWER 02/23/04 398.43 -2.19% 02/24/04 403.76 -.95% 02/25/04 395.25 -2.67% 02/26/04 394.70 -2.66% 02/27/04 396.02 -2.18% 03/01/04 398.81 -1.57% . XOI INDEX POWER 02/23/04 585.33 1.76% 02/24/04 584.75 1.54% 02/25/04 586.87 1.69% 02/26/04 589.19 1.89% 02/27/04 593.42 2.30% up 40% in a year 03/01/04 606.58 3.76% . 10 INDICATORS ------------- 02/23/04 they're continuing their fall 02/24/04 A/D line and Bolton-Tremblay stopped falling, the others, no 02/25/04 9 of the 10 ticked up, only McClellan was weaker 02/26/04 just like yesterday 02/27/04 all except McClellan are up to or through their 10DMA 03/01/04 they sure look good . . SUMMARY OF IMPRESSIONS FROM "LOOKING BACK" (above) ================================================== 03/01 The composite and cumulative range both show excellent strength. DIA and QQQ had unusually good days. Both closed around their highs ... but on lower volume which makes the move suspect. The dollar index was steady. WHEW! NYSE and S&P 500 had a good day, but, again, lower volume. I still think this marks a move to big-caps, even though NASD did well, too. VXO fell, which seems to confirm this notion. SHEESH! XOI is headed for the moon. . 02/27 Neither DIA nor QQQ set the world on fire. Both TRIN and TRINQ were fairly high at the close. What strength there was in the indexes was in the NYSE which was up on higher volume. The bond index is within 8 cents of a new high. The dollar index was fairly steady. Volatility seems to have fallen slightly. We noticed light volume in options, particularly QQQ, but have no idea what that means. XGLD, like the dollar, was steady. XOI was strong. . 02/26 There wasn't much change in the market's tone today, but it's worth noting that DIA weakened just a touch while QQQ strengthened by an equally weak increment. This is interesting because it is a reversal of what we've been seeing. However, the amounts are too small to really be significant, and volume is still modest. TRIN/TRINQ are settling back down. NASD shows a trifle more strength than NYSE. The DJ Bond index is still in a slow uptrend. The dollar index moved up again. Could this indicate anticipation of an interest rate increase? Probably not. If that were true, it wouldn't make sense for the bond index to move up. McClellan is reaching a point that held in early October and late November. VXN/VXO are back in complacency territory. XGLD was steady. XOI continues its advance. . 02/25 TRIN and TRINQ mellowed a bit. Actually, the whole downthrust did, but volume was lower so it's not that impressive. The dollar index was strong. It regained what it lost yesterday and a bit more. VXN and VXO both fell back. XGLD fell as we might expect with the dollar's rise. XOI continues its advance. None of this stuff suggests panic is imminent. . 02/24 The Bretz numbers on both TRIN and TRINQ are easing their way north. Our POWER30 numbers on NASD and NYSE barely moved today. The dollar index gave back it's Friday run-up. McClellan took another strong hit today and is almost back down to it's November low. VXO (the CBOE OEX volatility index) has fallen three days in a row. XGLD hit a low of 390 before reversing to close near its high (@ 403.76) It has not regained all of Friday's loss, yet. . 02/23 DIA and QQQ were not excessively grim. DIA is still above mid-point and QQQ closed near the bottom of its range. The cum range is approaching the lowest we've seen but we don't have enough data for that to be significant unless this level marks a turning point (as it has three times since last July). TRIN was subdued, but TRINQ shows anxiety. NASD's POWER30 number fell sharply but NYSE held up much better. I think these things suggest rotation more than bearishness. The dollar index was steady. McClellan plunged. VXN was up and VXO was steady. XGLD rebounded slightly and XOI is close to breaking out again. .