LOOKING BACK
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(Explanations are at #msg-2443566)
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NEW HIGHS NYSE NASD
02/23/04 116 95
02/24/04 119 87
02/25/04 130 103
02/26/04 199 121
02/27/04 279 148
03/01/04 473 251
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NEW LOWS NYSE NASD
02/23/04 9 11
02/24/04 12 18
02/25/04 6 9
02/26/04 4 5
02/27/04 2 5
03/01/04 5 5
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VOLUME FACTOR
02/23/04 .67
02/24/04 .72
02/25/04 .61
02/26/04 .63
02/27/04 .68
03/01/04 .63
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PUT/CALL RATIO
02/23/04 .456
02/24/04 .572
02/25/04 .460
02/26/04 .434
02/27/04 .553 low QQQ action
03/01/04 .412
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COMPOSITE DAILY 10DMA
02/23/04 -7101 6541
02/24/04 -6580 4979
02/25/04 -884 3706
02/26/04 4499 2318 positive and above falling 10DMA
02/27/04 8035 2061
03/01/04 14495 3067
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CUM RANGE VALUE
02/23/04 -4109 so much for "quiet"
02/24/04 -3849
02/25/04 -774
02/26/04 929
02/27/04 2218
03/01/04 5263
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DIA INDEX POWER STRENGTH
02/23/04 106.23 .30% .02
02/24/04 105.83 .01% -.13
02/25/04 106.19 .26% .00
02/26/04 105.94 .06% -.09
02/27/04 106.07 .12% -.08
03/01/04 106.96 .74% .14
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QQQ INDEX POWER STRENGTH
02/23/04 36.45 -1.72% -.41
02/24/04 36.36 -1.86% -.34
02/25/04 36.58 -1.34% -.20
02/26/04 36.67 -1.17% -.15
02/27/04 36.57 -1.44% -.21
03/01/04 37.05 -.44% .09
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TRIN Bretz TRIN-5
02/23/04 1.21 5.47
02/24/04 1.39 6.15
02/25/04 .78 5.82
02/26/04 .90 5.77
02/27/04 1.32 5.60
03/01/04 .69 5.08
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TRINQ Bretz TRINQ-5
02/23/04 1.68 6.67
02/24/04 1.03 7.06
02/25/04 .76 6.89
02/26/04 .68 5.20
02/27/04 1.38 5.53
03/01/04 .52 4.37
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NASDAQ INDEX POWER
02/23/04 2007.52 -2.22%
02/24/04 2005.44 -2.23%
02/25/04 2022.98 -1.49%
02/26/04 2032.57 -1.18%
02/27/04 2029.82 -1.38%
03/01/04 2057.80 -.36%
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DJ-30 INDEX POWER
02/23/04 10609.62 .36%
02/24/04 10566.37 .03%
02/25/04 10601.62 .28%
02/26/04 10580.14 .10%
02/27/04 10583.92 .10%
03/01/04 10678.14 .76%
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DJ Bonds INDEX POWER
02/23/04 178.42 .40%
02/24/04 178.59 .44%
02/25/04 178.73 .45%
02/26/04 178.40 .35%
02/27/04 178.86 .51%
03/01/04 178.83 .46%
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US Dollar INDEX POWER
02/23/04 86.91 .43%
02/24/04 86.16 -.28%
02/25/04 87.21 .73%
02/26/04 87.66 1.10%
02/27/04 87.30 .68%
03/01/04 87.42 .77%
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HUI INDEX POWER
02/23/04 217.10 -4.81%
02/24/04 224.33 -1.79%
02/25/04 221.67 -2.68%
02/26/04 223.06 -2.12%
02/27/04 224.80 -1.32%
03/01/04 227.28 -.42%
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NYSE INDEX POWER
02/23/04 6665.50 .77%
02/24/04 6654.88 .61%
02/25/04 6670.27 .73%
02/26/04 6677.66 .76%
02/27/04 6692.37 .84%
03/01/04 6766.56 1.60%
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S&P 500 INDEX POWER
02/23/04 1140.99 .42%
02/24/04 1139.09 .25%
02/25/04 1143.67 .52%
02/26/04 1144.91 .54%
02/27/04 1144.94 .46%
03/01/04 1155.97 1.13%
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McClellan INDEX
02/23/04 1525.27
02/24/04 1389.31
02/25/04 1308.87
02/26/04 1263.95
02/27/04 1260.73
03/01/04 1322.21
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VXN INDEX POWER
02/23/04 24.38 2.29%
02/24/04 24.68 3.08%
02/25/04 23.55 -.60%
02/26/04 23.10 -1.88%
02/27/04 22.84 -2.37%
03/01/04 22.54 -3.11%
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VXO INDEX POWER
02/23/04 15.93 -.97%
02/24/04 15.82 -1.14%
02/25/04 14.99 -5.19%
02/26/04 14.65 -6.60%
02/27/04 14.76 -5.28%
03/01/04 14.18 =8.20%
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XGLD INDEX POWER
02/23/04 398.43 -2.19%
02/24/04 403.76 -.95%
02/25/04 395.25 -2.67%
02/26/04 394.70 -2.66%
02/27/04 396.02 -2.18%
03/01/04 398.81 -1.57%
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XOI INDEX POWER
02/23/04 585.33 1.76%
02/24/04 584.75 1.54%
02/25/04 586.87 1.69%
02/26/04 589.19 1.89%
02/27/04 593.42 2.30% up 40% in a year
03/01/04 606.58 3.76%
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10 INDICATORS
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02/23/04 they're continuing their fall
02/24/04 A/D line and Bolton-Tremblay stopped falling, the others, no
02/25/04 9 of the 10 ticked up, only McClellan was weaker
02/26/04 just like yesterday
02/27/04 all except McClellan are up to or through their 10DMA
03/01/04 they sure look good
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SUMMARY OF IMPRESSIONS FROM "LOOKING BACK" (above)
==================================================
03/01 The composite and cumulative range both show excellent
strength. DIA and QQQ had unusually good days. Both closed
around their highs ... but on lower volume which makes the
move suspect. The dollar index was steady. WHEW! NYSE and
S&P 500 had a good day, but, again, lower volume. I still
think this marks a move to big-caps, even though NASD did
well, too. VXO fell, which seems to confirm this notion.
SHEESH! XOI is headed for the moon.
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02/27 Neither DIA nor QQQ set the world on fire. Both TRIN
and TRINQ were fairly high at the close. What strength
there was in the indexes was in the NYSE which was up on
higher volume. The bond index is within 8 cents of a new
high. The dollar index was fairly steady. Volatility
seems to have fallen slightly. We noticed light volume
in options, particularly QQQ, but have no idea what that
means. XGLD, like the dollar, was steady. XOI was strong.
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02/26 There wasn't much change in the market's tone today, but
it's worth noting that DIA weakened just a touch while QQQ
strengthened by an equally weak increment. This is
interesting because it is a reversal of what we've been
seeing. However, the amounts are too small to really be
significant, and volume is still modest. TRIN/TRINQ are
settling back down. NASD shows a trifle more strength than
NYSE. The DJ Bond index is still in a slow uptrend. The
dollar index moved up again. Could this indicate
anticipation of an interest rate increase? Probably not.
If that were true, it wouldn't make sense for the bond index
to move up. McClellan is reaching a point that held in early
October and late November. VXN/VXO are back in complacency
territory. XGLD was steady. XOI continues its advance.
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02/25 TRIN and TRINQ mellowed a bit. Actually, the whole
downthrust did, but volume was lower so it's not that
impressive. The dollar index was strong. It regained
what it lost yesterday and a bit more. VXN and VXO both
fell back. XGLD fell as we might expect with the dollar's
rise. XOI continues its advance. None of this stuff
suggests panic is imminent.
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02/24 The Bretz numbers on both TRIN and TRINQ are easing
their way north. Our POWER30 numbers on NASD and NYSE
barely moved today. The dollar index gave back it's
Friday run-up. McClellan took another strong hit today
and is almost back down to it's November low. VXO (the
CBOE OEX volatility index) has fallen three days in a
row. XGLD hit a low of 390 before reversing to close
near its high (@ 403.76) It has not regained all of
Friday's loss, yet.
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02/23 DIA and QQQ were not excessively grim. DIA is still
above mid-point and QQQ closed near the bottom of its range.
The cum range is approaching the lowest we've seen but we
don't have enough data for that to be significant unless
this level marks a turning point (as it has three times
since last July). TRIN was subdued, but TRINQ shows anxiety.
NASD's POWER30 number fell sharply but NYSE held up much
better. I think these things suggest rotation more than
bearishness. The dollar index was steady. McClellan plunged.
VXN was up and VXO was steady. XGLD rebounded slightly and
XOI is close to breaking out again.
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AI
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