we have continued along the one I feared, #2. It basically leads to a steady nasdaq grind higher over several years, but fails to make a new high before demographics causes another big drop starting toward the end of this decade
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Posted by: wahz
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 12273 Date:2/5/2004 11:47:02 AM
Post #of 13817
EVERYONE: this is a really hard crossroads to guess, because we have diverged a bit too far now from what I thought would happen the last week or so, but its worked for so long that it makes some sense to let it play out. In that spirit, I now have 2 bullish and one bearish path here:
edit: 1. I now lean to us having a month long burst to 2250, which then sends us us into a correction to 1900-1950 in early June Lets call this a 45% probability
2. We bounce to 2120 or so but fail, ie the correction did indeed start when I thought, but the rally off the first low was weak...35% probability
3. The bounce is even weaker than that and we are going to the low 1900's this month, and then into the mid to upper 1800's within a few months, and blasting off from there 20%
2 and 3 just mean that I blew the peak, but 1 is new a very important divergence.
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