Nicely done Clive, thank you.
Knowing that the "appreciation potential" is a 3-5 year estimate gives it more meaning, too. This is no short term indicator.
Going back to some of your earlier discussions about weighing risk of investment potential against the relatively "risk free" investment in insured cash deposits or short term bonds, this is also meaningful. A 35% to 40% 5 year total return starts to make the safe haven of ST bonds look a bit more attractive.
What's equally comforting here is to see that Value Line's metric also has done a pretty good job on its defining market bottoms. Heck, to think I've been collecting data from VL for 25 years and not paid serious attention to this part is a bit embarrassing!
It's '98 high risk call is pretty good looking 3-5 years out. It failed to continue the call in 2000, but by 2005 at least the markets had recovered quite a bit of their damage. The relatively low numbers shown since 1991 were also a good call for the longer term.
Similar to my i-Wave, their metric has been stuck waving a red flag for much of recent history. It would be interesting to know what all their components are which make up the Appreciation Potential.
Best regards, Tom
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