"I have yet to listen to the call, but if the above is what was actually said, I am not in the least surprised by the sell off. They will be out of $ by the q3, which means that they need to raise capital. "
that was what was said, and the analyst in question was somewhat taken aback if I recall. but to be clear the annualized burn will be double by end of next year, NOT the burn will be double for the year. that is simply because by then they will have at least 30 dyloject reps @ 200K apeice, and already indicated they will start building the ketamine commercial infrastructure before end of the year for an '09 launch. so if you think about it commercializing 2 products (from 0) and having pivotals in dyloject, ketamine, and presumably 2 rylomine will necessitate serious resources.
that they have to raise $ next year was never in doubt bob - go through some of the analyst reports. the fact some entity is shorting in the hopes of financing at a lower price may be right, but it is the gamble of the century. JAV could partner and never need to go to the markets. Besides, this management team structured the last financing at a near-high - they are not dumb. I guarantee if the do go to the markets they will release some proprietary data and boost share price before any financing. The following could be out before any financing:
1. first dyloject ph 3
2. ketamine pk and even CA breakthrough pain trial (its only 90 pts, and they enrolled the 40 patient ketamine dental trial in less than 2 months)
3. regulatory path for rylomine (they have been cagey about this and i suspect they have more clarity from reg authorities than they are letting on)
4. dyloject partner in rest of EU territories
5. lastly, if it came to selling shares at ridiculous levels, they probably woudl suck it up and get a US partner or copromotion deal for dyloject which would solve the cash crunch
I think if someone is playing this game they are playing with fire
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