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iwfal

10/24/07 7:38 PM

#4951 RE: TFA #4949

The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”


The efficient market theorists - even the most famous - essentially have as their evidence:

1) The distribution is gaussian

and/or

2) *I* don't know how to predict it so it must be unpredictable

Therefore it is unpredictable.

The conclusion does not follow from the observables.