I would like to know why you think its nuts to be a dollar for this stock. I personaly think its nuts to think it wont be.
Its simple math. Unless your convinced there will be no telmex launch (which I have seen no evidence that there wont be).
Assume massive dilution to 1.3 billion shares and we are still over a dollar. Toss in all the warrents and convertibles you have and we are there.
18 million subs (its more than that but lets just go with 18 million)
$2.00 per sub (its more than that but lets just go with $2 per.
thats 36 million a month in revenus and 432 million a year all reoccuring and not including MCC sales or any other income.
432million divided by 1.3 billion is earnings of 33 cents a share. a forward PE of 20 (which is standard for an established stock. A growth stock like ours is typically in the hundreds. I usually factor in 30 but for your skepticism I will do 20. That gives us $6.65 a share value.
Divide that by the penetration rate you expect them to get and you have your value. I think they can make 20% easily and probably much higher. at 20% were looking at $1.32 a share value for telmex.
I have been rather conservative. I have almost doubled the current shares. Knocked off 20% of the earnings per sub. Not included telnors subs and shaved off a million of telmex subs. Used a standardized PE of 20 as opposed to the growth were going to be looking at AND only used a 20% penetration into their subs and I am STILL above a dollar a share. Nor am I including ANY OTHER SOURCE OF INCOME.
Yet you claim those who think so are nuts. I would like to see what calculations YOU are using to come up with your estimates (and what that estimate is)
Ihubposter! I respect your opinion as being very realistic. However, I would encourage you to follow your game plan but don't entirely rule out the possibility of this thing hitting the dollar mark. Believe me, I've seen stranger things from stocks with a lot less potential!
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