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Re: ihubposter post# 13235

Sunday, 10/07/2007 11:04:26 AM

Sunday, October 07, 2007 11:04:26 AM

Post# of 41740
I would like to know why you think its nuts to be a dollar for this stock. I personaly think its nuts to think it wont be.

Its simple math. Unless your convinced there will be no telmex launch (which I have seen no evidence that there wont be).

Assume massive dilution to 1.3 billion shares and we are still over a dollar. Toss in all the warrents and convertibles you have and we are there.

18 million subs (its more than that but lets just go with 18 million)

$2.00 per sub (its more than that but lets just go with $2 per.


thats 36 million a month in revenus and 432 million a year all reoccuring and not including MCC sales or any other income.

432million divided by 1.3 billion is earnings of 33 cents a share. a forward PE of 20 (which is standard for an established stock. A growth stock like ours is typically in the hundreds. I usually factor in 30 but for your skepticism I will do 20. That gives us $6.65 a share value.

Divide that by the penetration rate you expect them to get and you have your value. I think they can make 20% easily and probably much higher. at 20% were looking at $1.32 a share value for telmex.

I have been rather conservative. I have almost doubled the current shares. Knocked off 20% of the earnings per sub. Not included telnors subs and shaved off a million of telmex subs. Used a standardized PE of 20 as opposed to the growth were going to be looking at AND only used a 20% penetration into their subs and I am STILL above a dollar a share. Nor am I including ANY OTHER SOURCE OF INCOME.

Yet you claim those who think so are nuts. I would like to see what calculations YOU are using to come up with your estimates (and what that estimate is)

Thanks in advance.

Dumo

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