"Thinking like a criminal" I think we get a good enough correction this month to suck in the bears who are thinking like it's 1987, then instead of a crash, we get another furious rally into the end of the year. This is a change from my earlier prediction.
In 2006, the market topped in May and bottomed in June/July. I correctly predicted that this year, we would NOT top in May, but would top in July. Which we did. The market will never do the same thing two years in a row. (I predicted that we would crash through the Fall, but I did not expect the subprime bomb to hit so fast and furious as it did, nor did I expect the Fed to panic as quickly as it did, so I incorrectly predicted that we would have a very bad Fall.)
Looking into next year, since 2006 topped in May, and we cannot do that again so soon, nor can we top in July again, I think we will top earlier in the Spring of 2008, say late March/early April, when no one is expecting it, but bottom in May. I think "reality" will start hitting the markets next Spring, and the Fed will then really panic, and start cutting rates like mad. Next May should be like March 2003, especially if the US attacks Iran.
I am not a cycle expert, but I do play one on TV. :) Just kidding -- I make these projections for fun. I read airedale and other cycle guys, and have much more faith in them than my own silly predictions.
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