Replies to post #11539 on Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)

[cbs13]

Laker - very nice post - I have a thought

My opinion, and everyone should do DD work here.

Let me run this by you - July talk was 23 - now I posted deals that were put on the back burner are coming back at scale downed versions.
So your 21ish fits what I'm saying. It is on the north side - but we are in the same ballpark.

Now MRVL stock px hit 20 in July on the rumor, then fell back . Then rallied to 18+ into earnings only to get crushed back after CC to near its 52 wk low.

Since then the stock has traded very narrowly, post CC high slightly north of 17.

Now think about the last qtr results: they beat on the rev side, bottom line was in line, and they guided up for this current qtr.
Forget about the botched CC, and judge it on what I'm saying.
Sehat has got to be really annoyed (to put it mildly) where the stock is currently trading. Sehat could have settled concerns raised on call in offline conversations with analysts going into more detail on margins and tax-bracket issues.

Take into consideration the rumor earlier this week was accompanied by Sehat, wife and brother maintaining some type of controlling interest which as far as I can tell did not surface in July.
His wife being the key here - because she does not have any real power currently.

Once the controlling interest is finalized that would leave only one stumbling block remainning - that would be the performance objectives Sehat and Family would have to meet as a private co. which would have to be structured into the financing part of the deal. You see just because your private - it only means your not judged qtr to qtr basis - but you still have to meet some kind of rev and profit projections.

Bottom Line - Everything is in place imo, you got to think its time to make the deal and move on.

Agree/Disargee?
Thoughts of course are welcomed by all.

[sun light]

I really don't think MRVL will be MBO.

Here are few reasons for that.

1) Family really owns this company at heart and they know what they are doing. Stock price is short term glitch, which will take care of itself once all the things related to new executive team in place.

2) Sehat and Pantas are well known people in the industry (just check their interview at University what they gave last year). They will not want to be recognized by people that they sold their company or went private because they were not able to do their job/run well. This will be an insult for them. (They are young to sell and settle for retirement).


Note: Hiring a CFO, COO and BOD may be very easy for any other mid size company but not for MRVL, because the new person really has to be part of the family and has to have full trust of all the family members, which is not easy to find. That's the main reason for the delay.

This is my take, do your own DD.