To:Bearcatbob who wrote (224) From: Mark Kubisz Monday, Jul 7, 1997 2:29 AM Respond to of 80032
Good grief, I hope you're not suggesting that it's going to take 10 years for gold to bounce back!
To:mikesloan who wrote (256) From: Mark Kubisz Monday, Jul 7, 1997 2:39 AM Respond to of 80032
Last check before I turn out the lights...Gold up $2 off its Sydney lows of $317 and change as we approach the London opening. Good luck to all.
To:terry astle who wrote (249) From: long-gone Monday, Jul 7, 1997 3:03 AM Respond to of 80032
hi terry, I think now most of this is panic selling. Have we stopped the down slide? Thought it had stopped @ 323! I suspect this may be an 84 trading bottom of $303.If it breaks through there, & falls to 82 low,we could see 296.75. Good news( if one can find a silver lining in this cloud) is these numbers are below 1980 low,when we shot up to 850 on topside. good news here is what we could see on top. richard http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1712457
To:long-gone who wrote (259) From: mikesloan Monday, Jul 7, 1997 3:30 AM Respond to of 80032
Bulls v. Bears Experts grow more gloomy on outlook for bullion, bonds
Monday, July 7, 1997 Globe and Mail By Angela Barnes Markets Reporter
Which came first -- last Thursday's slump in the bullion price to a 12-year low or the increasing fears that the 17-month long slide has further to go?
Whichever the case, it is clear from The Globe and Mail's latest Bulls v. Bears survey that the tumble of the tarnished metal through a series of support levels has shaken the confidence even of diehard gold bugs.
The percentage of survey respondents predicting that the price of bullion six months from now will fall below current levels has risen to 20 per cent from just 6 per cent in the early June sample. Gold is hovering precariously around the $324 (U.S.)-an-ounce level.
Moreover, a significant number of experts expect no change in the price. Almost one in three of the professionals fall into this category, some of whom may simply be reluctant to venture a guess.
However, there are still bulls out there on bullion. One in two respondents still see reason to expect better times for gold before the year is out. On only two other occasions since the survey began in June, 1996, has the proportion of bulls been that small.
For those who call themselves contrarians, that low reading could be a sign that the situation is poised to get better. In their view, it's always darkest before the dawn.
A number of factors have hurt bullion prices, the most recent being the Federal Reserve Board's decision not to raise U.S. interest rates, and the Bank of Australia's big selloff of gold reserves. While optimism about bullion may be fading, hopes are inching up that the longest recorded bull market in U.S. equities will carry on at least until the end of the year.
At the end of a week that saw both the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in New York hit record levels, 36 per cent of the pros said they are looking for more gains in the S&P 500. That's up from about 35 per cent two weeks ago and 32 per cent a month ago.
And in what amounts to a further vote of confidence, the numbers of pros suspecting the aged bull is running out of steam fell to 48 per cent from 61 per cent in the previous reading. That's not surprising, given the latest U.S. economic readings that suggest the U.S. Federal Reserve Board may not need to raise interest rates at the August meeting of its policy-setting committee.
Low interest rates have been one of the central supports of the bull market.
Market professionals are generally much more optimistic now about prospects for the Toronto Stock Exchange -- which has seriously underperformed the New York Stock Exchange so far this year -- than they were even toward the end of June. Almost 58 per cent of respondents predict the TSE 300-stock composite will be higher six months from now; only 24 per cent foresee a decline. The comparable figures from the late June survey were 55 per cent bulls and 42 per cent bears.
But when it comes to bonds, the bears remain firmly in control, with 43 per cent of the market watchers expecting declines and only 27 per cent anticipating advances.
The biweekly Bulls v. Bears survey is a proprietary feature developed by The Globe and Mail to give investors a feel for trends in professional market sentiment. There were 33 respondents to the latest survey.
Every two weks we survey money managers, strategists and advisers on where they expect financial markets to be in six months -- up, down or unchanged. Here is what they think this week. % Bullish % Bearish* TSE 300 58% 24% S&P 500 36% 48% Bond prices 27% 43% Gold 50% 20% * The rest are neutral. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1712474
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