PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (XAU)

[Pro-Life]

We need to get this metals sector some higher respect and more board traffic...

[Pro-Life]

$GOLD spot price nearly hit $1200...

[Pro-Life]

EXCELLENT!!!

[Pro-Life]

Roaring to life... Gold Surges To 4-Month Highs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 08:14 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-08/gold-surges-4-month-highs

[Pro-Life]

+2.75% today...

[Pro-Life]

THEY’RE ONLY MAKING IT WORSE
Andy Hoffman Miles Franklin Published : November 04th, 2015

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-they-re-only-making-it-worse.aspx?article=7687299440H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Andy+Hoffman

... Heck, even Donald Trump knows it – opining, with amazing clarity, that “Janet Yellen is highly political, and she’s not raising rates for a very specific reason…because Obama told her not to…as he doesn’t want to see a big bubble burst during his administration.”

It may well do so anyway – as given “Economic Mother Nature’s” increasingly powerful performance in the “war for reality,” the odds of a total loss of manipulative control are increasing exponentially. Moreover, as I espoused two months ago, the “only financial event that could be as cataclysmic as a significant Yuan devaluation” would be a Federal Reserve rate increase – given how, in essence, the entire global fiat Ponzi scheme is dependent on zero interest rates for survival – or, more aptly put, to simply enable it to “kick the can” those last few feet. Well, that and 24/7 manipulation of all financial markets, economic data, and monetary commentary.

In other words, the latest “imminent rate hike” commentary (which may be intensified by today’s speeches from the Fed’s “Big Three” of Yellen, Dudley, and Fischer) is “only making things worse” – particularly as it has not been accompanied by the slightest improvement in global economic activity. Or, for that matter, “hope”; “optimism”; or frankly, anything that would cause expectations for tightened monetary policy – and certainly not yesterday’s ugly factory orders report, or this morning’s similarly weak ADP employment report.

Lots more at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Shown In One Silver Chart
Steve St. Angelo | October 19, 2015 - 11:48pm

http://silverseek.com/commentary/collapse-western-financial-system-shown-one-silver-chart-14979

The collapse of the Western Financial System already occurred years ago. Even though the top banks continue to behave as if they are solvent institutions with functioning balance sheets, they are totally bankrupt without Fed & Central Bank intervention.

Charts and more are at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

Gold Soars Into Green Year-To-Date, Breaks Above Key Technical Level
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2015 - 14:09

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-14/gold-soars-green-year-date-breaks-above-key-technical-level

Gold has broken above its 200-day moving-average and pushed back into positive territoiry for 2015 amid a notable surge in prices (after whipsawing around in the last 24 hours). As the USD Index suffers its first 'death cross' in over 2 years, perhaps Paul Singer's comments are starting to gather momentum.

More plus charts at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

This is it... the Bull is on... Finally...

[myrtle222]

Not looking good ?

[Pro-Life]

XAU - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/stock-market/philadelphia-gold-and-silver-index-2990

What it is:

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (Nasdaq: XAU) is traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and is made up of 16 precious metal mining companies.

How it works/Example:

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index is made up of gold and silver mining company stocks and is not to be confused with physical gold and silver. Though the component stocks change in value daily, the updated list of companies in the index and their values can be found here.

Why it Matters:

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index is one of the most closely followed gold indices on the market. An investor can use this index as a benchmark to compare with his/her investments in gold or silver mining companies

An investor can mirror the performance of this index by weighting their portfolio allocation similarly to the index's allocation. Alternatively, an investor may choose to invest in an ETF that trades gold and silver mining companies.

[Pro-Life]

$GOLD/$SILVER and gold/silver stock calls flying off the shelves...

[myrtle222]

Just realized the name change

[myrtle222]

Is this xau bitgold or goldmoney?

[myrtle222]

This XAU. Is for the stock bit gold

[Pro-Life]

This sector has cratered... Will mining survive despite demand???

[Pro-Life]

The XAU is an index traded on the Philadelphia exchange. It consists of 29 precious metal mining companies. Those companies and their current share prices are listed below:

http://www.kitco.com/pop_windows/stocks/xau.html

[CommonCents4Dollars]

The recent bought deal financing @ $3.65 needs to close, that is the leash holding this back.

[myrtle222]

The trading has sure dropped off!
I still think this idea is great. I guess the big question is. "How much revenue will be generated" and will bitgold "gold" owners have a viable working currency?

[CommonCents4Dollars]

BOB MORIARTY – TUE 26 MAY, 2015

AN IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION ON BITGOLD
Bob Moriarty joins us to chat about the risks of investing BitGold. That said this is definitely a Company that could be changing the way people think of banking and money.

http://www.kereport.com/2015/05/26/indepth-discussion-bitgold/

[myrtle222]

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150522005342/en/BitGold-Announces-CAD-51.9-Million-Acquisition-GoldMoney.com

[myrtle222]

Any idea as to why the hault

[myrtle222]

Is this the new bitgold board

[NYBob]

$SILVER&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p14311053374&a=210056018&r=8594" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc" aria-label="user uploaded image">$SILVER&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p14311053374&a=210056018&r=8594">

[NYBob]

The Best Small Cap Silver for 2007:
Pan American Silver? -

As fears of an inverted yield curve, a weakening dollar,
and an economic slowdown mount, commodities -
are getting more attention.

Why, you ask? Well, for one thing, the performance
of commodities in general, and precious metals
in particular, has historically had a low correlation
with the rest of the market, so the sector becomes
more appealing in down markets.

But precious metals have also done well
in the bull market of the past few years.
Consider, for instance, that the Vanguard
Precious Metals & Mining Fund has gained
36% per annum over the past five years
and the streetTRACKS Gold Shares
NYSE: GLD) ETF, which roughly tracks
the value of gold, is up 23% in the
past 52 weeks.

The S&P 500, by comparison, is up
roughly 6% per year over the past five years
and 14% in the past year.

Silver spoons
Silver-mining stocks, as a group, have done
particularly well -- up 49% in the
past 52 weeks.

Among this group are:

Company

YTD Performance*

Franklin Mining (FMNJ)
about 1000% -



Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq: SSRI)
100%

Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL)
83%

Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW)
99%

Apex Silver Mines (AMEX: SIL)
7%

Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE)
34%

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5406

[NYBob]

Electronic and industrial demand for Silver -
Ag significantly exceed supply." --
For 2005, the silverinstitute reports:

Mine supply was 641 million Ag ounces -

Government sales was 68 million Ag ounces -

Silver scrap was 187 million ounces -

Producer hedging was 15 million Ag ounces for a -

Total supply of 911 million Ag ounces -

Demand is as follows:

Industrial applications, 409 million Ag ounces -

Photography, 165 million Ag ounces -

Jewelry & Silverware, 250 million Ag ounces -

Coins & medals, 41 million Ag ounces -

Additional investment, only 47 million Ag ounces -

Mine supply is less than industrial demand -

The difference is mostly met through government sales
from India, and scrap recycling -

Scrap metal recovered was far greater -
than investment demand, and investment demand -
was a tiny 5% of the market in 2005 -
There was no investment demand for the ten years prior -
as investors were mostly selling -

Investor demand is really only just beginning -

Investors have tens of trillions worth of fiat
paper money -

about 100,000 times more than the size -
of the Silver market -

Even a tiny interest in Silver will cause -
the price to skyrocket -

http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply/index.php

LT Positive we'll Prosper with Silver -

FMNJ - with the large old Silver -
Inca Cerro Rico Mine - rich ore veins -
other future Silver mining companies -
will line up in front of FMNJ doors -
to get any opportunity to be in -
to an option to participate in an FMNJ joint venture -
to become a partner etc. -

FMNJ - FY2pennies fiats -
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5406

http://tinyurl.com/y54k7r

[NYBob]

FMNJ - undervalued as Silver may be -
considering the price moves so far in -
the base metals, the actual ST price -
discrepancy vastly understates the true -
nature of the LT Silver under valuation -

Where Silver clearly stands out from these -
other metals is in the fact that Silver -
has always been considered an investment metal -
spanning thousands of years -

In this regard, Silver is closely
aligned LT with the PMs - Gold -

The regular investor of the world has not -
and will not, in my opinion, hold physical -
the Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Tin or Lead -
the base metals -

That regular investor has and will continue
to hold physical PMs - Silver & Gold -

This simple fact means that Silver -
should have already greatly exceeded -
the price run-ups in the other metals -
due to the investment kicker -
but held down by the manipulation -
ST counterfeiters of fiats -
cabals bogus papers -

That it hasn’t yet certainly should not -
be LT interpreted that it won’t -

In fact, it is this obvious investment kicker -
that promises to blow the lid off -
the undervalued LT Silver market -

In summary, the investment punch to the Silver price
has barely been felt and before it’s over -
the percentage gain in LT Silver will dwarf
any other metal -
history often repeat itself -

FMNJ real LT Ore-value Res. have still increased -
much more than the 4 to 6-folds in the -
real only currency based on 1000s of years -
the real money currency of Silver -
ex. gratia - the Cerro Rico - Potosi - Inca -
the Worlds Largest and Richest Silver Mine -

FMNJ - FY2pennies fiats -

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5406

http://tinyurl.com/y54k7r

[NYBob]

Complete Silver depletion by May 2007 -
Taken from an article:

One of the exciting things about Silver is the drawdown in
inventory, which is accelerating.

On Wednesday another 838,801 ounces were withdrawn,
leaving 99 million ounces.

Dealers in the registered category gave up 631,727 from
the registered category as 207,074 left the eligible stocks.

Over the past two months 9 million ounces have disappeared.

At the present rate of withdrawal Comex will be out of inventory
by May 2007.

Then there is no more.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rosen080506.html

http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1155000000.php

This consumption currently does not consider any other ETF's
coming online between now and May 2007.

Imagine if one ETF comes online between now and then
and its even 25% as successful as Barclay's.

Imagine if the Canadian one is launched by then?

This all of course speculates on the new ETF -
being one where physical bullion is stored versus -
derivative instruments -

when we can expect world silver to run out? -

Based on the math, maybe a mistake in one assumption:
The Silver Report from GFMS -

• Says this is the 17th straight year that supply
has been running at a deficit to demand -

• Supply =mine output + recycled scrap

• Total demand 864.4 million ounces

• Total mine supply 641.6 million ounces

• Total scrap supply 187.3 million ounces

• The deficit is 35.5 million ounces per year

• In world stock we have 222.8 million ounces

• If we assume the ETF eats another 70 million ounces, then
(222.8- 70)/ 35 deficit/yr = 4.35 years before stock piles of
silver COMPLETELY run out -

• The last bullet assumes, foolishly, that the demand for silver
will not grow greater over the next 4.35 years -

• You should see the smile on my face right now -
maybe a few years to UNCN Longs retirement…lol..

UNCN very oversold - undervalued' -




UNCN - Unico Inc. = $5.4 MILLION?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu&qm_page=56047&qm_symbol=uncn
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=177
Including - The Silver Bell Mine -
The Deer Trail Gold & Silver Mines -
The Bromide Gold Mines -

We need a 'every day Update' on the -
Silver Companies > Market cap's (updated?) -
Anyone have the new Market Cap's Update? -

FMNJ very oversold - undervalued -
FMNJ - Franklin Mining, Inc. = $45 MILLION?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2957
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5406
vs. compare to -

ECU - ECU Silver = $488 MILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6098

HL - Hecla Mining Co = $681.71 MILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=cde&qm_page=64251&qm_symbol=hl
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6097

SIL - Apex Silver Mines Ltd. = $905.33 MILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu&qm_page=4079&qm_symbol=sil
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5810

SLW - Silver Wheatonfiltered= $2.06 BILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu&qm_page=98063&qm_symbol=slw
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4338

SSRI - Silver Standard Resources Inc. = $1.16 BILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu&qm_page=17190&qm_symbol=ssri
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6095

CDE - Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp = $1.47 BILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu&qm_page=35188&qm_symbol=cde
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5237

PAAS - Pan American Silver Corp. = $1.59 BILLION
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=v.ecu&qm_page=63958&qm_symbol=paas
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4490


http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5406

Note. if You have more updated info -
Silver comp. market cap. please, don't
hesitate to let us know -
tia.



http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5406

history repeat itself -



Do not let any volatility shake You out -
the more volatility the higher it will go -

the new trend waves will often be -
Fibonacci - 162% of the previous correction -

when the weak hands exhaust themselves -
we'll see the next waves up -

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

The Outstanding Public Debt -
as of Jun 2006:



Unless the United States gets all of its economic
house in order ? -

Gold will become the basic real money again -
(which Gold has been for 1000's of years)
and national currencies will only be money -
if backed by - Gold.

With the exception only of the periods of -

- The Great Gold Standard -

practically all governments of history -

have used their exclusive power to issue fiat money -

to defraud with totalitarian bureaucratic powers -
rob, plunder and to make slaves -
of most the people -



http://www.goldrush21.com/

Thanks for your participations -
Brgds
Bob

[thinkerman]

Not PU, but Pmu. :o)
It jump $.33 on no news which equates to 45%. I can't not find any news to explain it. My Guess is someone is try to buy them out or there is some hidden good news. ???

Goodfortune and Godspeed

The ThinkerMan

[cycle dude]

Hello long gone,how ya been? Scotty here, I changed my handle. I haven't posted on SI for many moons....My astro guru thinks the gold/silver moon shot is yet to come, he's thinking late 2005 into 2006. I disagree with him, I think a huge rally could start this year. I'm expecting a financial "accident", some sort of liquidity crisis. Did you hear about the banking crisis in Russia last week, bank runs are very gold-bullish. Could be the first domino.

[mineralme]

Guys, come back, Dollar dropped today, we are off and running!
(It could happen!)

MM

[meg_60201]

Geez, where is everyone on this board? Anyone play GSS at all? It had a nice cup and handle breakout....

[fostus]

Try looking at BHK-T... they just finished their hedge position, they have NO debt, 140 million shares outstanding, around 1 million OZ of gold devided between Canada and Central America, one active mine, cash break even of$225, 33,000 oz for the remainder of 2003 AND the share price is currently $0.16.

I would suggest a glance at this one...

http://www.bhkmining.com/index.html

[antman]

Thx- will keep an eye on these- I follow YWO, AQI.V, SWG and LAM for golds.

[oris52]

Where is the rally? What happened? Gone for good?

[Bernard_Barouk]

Very selective in golds I follow, listed below, I have a few I have followed a decade or more.

"Posted by: antman
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 375 Date:1/27/2003 5:49:48 PM
Post #of 379

Can you do an Elliot Wave analysis on YWO.V?

Thx in advance-"


Gold, and especially micro-cap gold companies, look like they are in the process of starting an incredible second big upmove move here, in a huge Elliot Wave 3 take-off.

Micro-cap golds, especially Cusac (CUSIF.ob), Benguet (BENGB.ob) and Commerce Group (CGCO.ob) look ready to launch a Wave 3 advance, after a dramatic 4X up Wave 1 and a 50% hair cut Wave 2.

Typically one looks for Wave 3 to be 300% X the %of Wave one advance.

That means that we expect a 900% upmove on this run in these three stocks, by this fall. These are stocks I am currently playing aggressively.

CUSIF.ob, CGCO.ob and CUSIF.ob.......... all have four key things in common that make them a huge buy right here:

- They are each outside the U.S. (CUSAC - Canada, BENGUET- Philippines, Commerce Group - El Salvador)

- They each have just come off multi-year bottom, had a huge 3 bagger+ Elliot Wave spike up Wave 1 up and have NOW completed Wave 2 down. They are lagging the majors, and RIGHT NOW they are entering Big Wave 3 up. We all know this is the biggest and most attractive part of a bull mover. From examining the charts I expect each to have a 8 to 10 bagger.

-All three are idle mining companies with good reserves, which is like buying an out of the money call, HUGE upside leverage. None have significant callable debt, and basically need $350+ stable gold prices to be 10-20++ baggers. Each has proven out and high probable reserves, ready to crank it up as things improve. If you believe we are in a bull market for gold this is how the dough is made.

- All three are not really followed by "The Street" yet. Sure a couple of newsletters mentioned Cusac, but no one, I mean no one but me remembers CGCO.ob and BENGB.ob in their glory days of being 30-50X higher in price then they are now.

Cusac, which I have 250,000 shares of, is prone to being highly promoted as bull markets progress, it has great fundamentals, but a little push from the blabber-mouths doesn't hurt. Big range of gold ore inherited from Cyprus Amax (Cyprus had to abandon option due to financial problems), plus Table Mountain mine in place (all it needs is a little higher gold prices, and the latest in mining tech will make this baby hummm). The symbol you would use in your brokerage account to look up Cusac would be CUSIE (possibly need to add .ob, depending on the service).

BENGB.ob. I have followed the stock for decades, currently own 200,000 shares.

It trades at $.15, but go to www.bigcharts.com and pull up a quote for bengb for the past 20 years, you can see it has traded as high as $8.

There are 2 "wild cards' that will make this one pop:

- It inherited, free of charge, the massive KingKing copper and gold range from Echo Bay, when Echo Bay had proved it up, but did not have the money to bring it into production(again, a forfeited option). Effectively Benguet has a lot more ore/share going into this bull market than last.

- The Philipino Peso, like the South African Rand, has totally collapsed, meaning mining at Benguet will be done cheap in Peso, and sold in more valuable $US, which is what has made DROOY move like it has due to Rand collapse.

I see it moving from $.15 to at least $3 in the next 15 months, or around a 20 bagger.

All the elements that took this thing to $6-7 are still in place, all we need is a little higher gold prices. The added KingKing will insure success.

[antman]

Can you do an Elliot Wave analysis on YWO.V?

Thx in advance-

[goldminer723]

XAU about to be featured in 'The Gold Letter'. To receive a copy, send a blank email to:

[e-mail]

[Bernard_Barouk]

Gold, and especially micro-cap gold companies, look like they are in the process of starting an incredible second big upmove move here, in a huge Elliot Wave 3 take-off.

Micro-cap golds, especially Cusac (CUSIF.ob), Benguet (BENGB.ob) and Commerce Group (CGCO.ob) look ready to launch a Wave 3 advance, after a dramatic 4X up Wave 1 and a 50% hair cut Wave 2.

Typically one looks for Wave 3 to be 300% X the %of Wave one advance.

That means that we expect a 900% upmove on this run in these three stocks, by this fall. These are stocks I am currently playing aggressively.

CUSIF.ob, CGCO.ob and CUSIF.ob.......... all have four key things in common that make them a huge buy right here:

- They are each outside the U.S. (CUSAC - Canada, BENGUET- Philippines, Commerce Group - El Salvador)

- They each have just come off multi-year bottom, had a huge 3 bagger+ Elliot Wave spike up Wave 1 up and have NOW completed Wave 2 down. They are lagging the majors, and RIGHT NOW they are entering Big Wave 3 up. We all know this is the biggest and most attractive part of a bull mover. From examining the charts I expect each to have a 8 to 10 bagger.

-All three are idle mining companies with good reserves, which is like buying an out of the money call, HUGE upside leverage. None have significant callable debt, and basically need $350+ stable gold prices to be 10-20++ baggers. Each has proven out and high probable reserves, ready to crank it up as things improve. If you believe we are in a bull market for gold this is how the dough is made.

- All three are not really followed by "The Street" yet. Sure a couple of newsletters mentioned Cusac, but no one, I mean no one but me remembers CGCO.ob and BENGB.ob in their glory days of being 30-50X higher in price then they are now.

Cusac, which I have 250,000 shares of, is prone to being highly promoted as bull markets progress, it has great fundamentals, but a little push from the blabber-mouths doesn't hurt. Big range of gold ore inherited from Cyprus Amax (Cyprus had to abandon option due to financial problems), plus Table Mountain mine in place (all it needs is a little higher gold prices, and the latest in mining tech will make this baby hummm). The symbol you would use in your brokerage account to look up Cusac would be CUSIE (possibly need to add .ob, depending on the service).

BENGB.ob. I have followed the stock for decades, currently own 200,000 shares.

It trades at $.15, but go to www.bigcharts.com and pull up a quote for bengb for the past 20 years, you can see it has traded as high as $8.

There are 2 "wild cards' that will make this one pop:

- It inherited, free of charge, the massive KingKing copper and gold range from Echo Bay, when Echo Bay had proved it up, but did not have the money to bring it into production(again, a forfeited option). Effectively Benguet has a lot more ore/share going into this bull market than last.

- The Philipino Peso, like the South African Rand, has totally collapsed, meaning mining at Benguet will be done cheap in Peso, and sold in more valuable $US, which is what has made DROOY move like it has due to Rand collapse.

I see it moving from $.15 to at least $3 in the next 15 months, or around a 20 bagger.

All the elements that took this thing to $6-7 are still in place, all we need is a little higher gold prices. The added KingKing will insure success.

I have 115,000 shares of Commerce group (CGCO.ob), El Salvadoran national mining company basically. Mothballed by low gold prices, they have 5+ existing mines in place, 1.5 million ounces of proven + 3.5 MM probable. They are like buying gold for $3 an ounce. This stock was $10 last time gold traded over $500, it is currently $.22. I expect $3+ this year on a gold move over $400, from the current .22, or a 50-100 bagger in three years as gold goes past $600. It has happened several times before with this one in gold bull rallies.

CGCO.ob is my first choice for the big money right here. Am positioning to add more. No one is paying attention to it.

[greg]

gold is gonna rally!

this article alone clarifies many question anyone should have to dispute this statement...

http://www.gold-stocks.com/pfrally.htm

greg

[long-gone]

To:John Barendrecht who wrote (538)
From: mikesloan Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 2:49 PM
Respond to of 82910

Check the gold chart. POG is $317.90 down $2.00

To:Alex who wrote (536)
From: Bobby Yellin Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 3:01 PM
Respond to of 82910

wow...is Japan trapped into doing what the USA wants to do? with the dollar? yen? gold? because of its position...never even thought of this

To:Bobby Yellin who wrote (543)
From: mikesloan Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 5:30 PM
Respond to of 82910

Study Shows Mining Generates $5.1 Billion for Oregon's Economy
SPOKANE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 15, 1997--The mining industry had a combined
direct and indirect impact on the economy of Oregon of $5.1 billion in 1995, according to a new
study released today by the Western Economic Analysis Center, Marana, Arizona.

``The study, Everything Begins With Mining - Mining and the American Economy, shows that
mining has an importance in the economy disproportionate to its size,'' Laura Skaer, Executive
Director of the Spokane based Northwest Mining Association said.

``Mining literally takes a part of nature that has little or no economic value and creates something of
value from it. Much of Oregon's prosperity is due to an abundant supply of mineral resources,''
Skaer said. ``Mining clearly is one of the foundations of Oregon's economic growth. Without
mining there would be no Intel, no Precision Castparts, and no Tektronix.''

A major finding of the study is that people do not have to live in an obvious mining state or work
directly in the mining industry to benefit from mining. In fact, many residents, businesses and
governments in states with only small amounts of mining activity receive large economic gains from
mining in other states.

The study, conducted on behalf of the National Mining Association, for the first time, captures the
direct and indirect results in the economies of localities, states, regions and the Nation as mineral
resources and wealth circulates and recirculates.

According to the study's author, Dr. George F. Leaming, the Oregon mining industry had a direct
economic impact on the state of $387 million, including $105 million in income for other Oregon
businesses and $119 million in wages and salaries for the 2,900 men and women employed directly
by the industry.

The Oregon mining industry also paid $18.9 million in state and local taxes and another $21.1
million in federal taxes. The value of minerals mined in Oregon in 1995 totaled $391 million, the
study showed.

When the indirect economic impacts of mining in Oregon are considered, the industry accounted
for personal income of $1.4 billion for 53,500 mining-related jobs; business income of $2.7 billion;
state and local taxes of $276 million and $633 million in federal taxes.

Nationally, the domestic mining industry generated $48.4 billion directly to the U.S. economy in
1995. This total includes direct payments of $27 billion to American businesses; $14.5 billion in
personal income for Americans, including wages and salaries for the industry's 320,400 employees;
$3.5 billion in taxes and other revenues to the federal government; and $3.3 billion in taxes to state
and local governments.

As the industry's direct economic contributions circulate through the economy, the financial impacts
of mining are magnified. According to the study, mining's direct and indirect impact on the U.S.
economy in 1995 totaled $523.6 billion. This amount includes $295.7 billion in income for
businesses that support mining; $143.7 billion in personal income for the 5 million jobs supported
indirectly by mining; $56.9 billion in taxes and other revenue for the federal government; and $27.1
billion in state and local government taxes and revenues.

``To maintain the standard of living of its people and its place in the global economy, the nation will
continue to need minerals,'' Leaming said. ``Without mining, the ability of the U.S. economy to
meet the needs of its people and maintain its global position would be reduced severely. And so
would the abilities of 5 million Americans to meet their needs and those of their families.''

The Northwest Mining Association (NWMA) is a 103 year old, 2,900 member non-profit,
non-partisan trade association based in Spokane, Washington. NWMA's purpose is to support
and advance the mineral resource and related industries, to represent and inform members on
technical, legislative and regulatory issues, to provide for the dissemination of educational materials
related to mining, and to foster and promote economic opportunity and environmentally responsible
mining.

-0-
Northwest Mining Association
10 N. Post St., Suite 414
Spokane, WA 99201-0772
[phone]
Fax: [phone]

Contact:

Laura Skaer, 509/624-1158
Bob Webster, 202/463-2664
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1767477

[long-gone]

To:John Barendrecht who wrote (399)
From: mikesloan Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 2:44 PM
Respond to of 82910

Wool sets a shining example for gold
Australian Financial Review April 28/97

By Stephen Wyatt

The wool market surged last week to hit its highest level
since September 1995. At last, the Australian wool
industry is crawling out from under its mushroom of
gloom.

Wool prices are now 60 per cent above their 1993 lows
and the massive wool stockpile, the result of a disastrous
price support scheme over the 1980s, has been reduced
by nearly two thirds.

Now, Dr Bob Richardson, the man charged with
liquidating the stockpile, could be headhunted by one of
the world's central banks. After all, just as Australia's
wool industry has been burdened by an oppressive wool
stockpile, so too has the world gold market. Massive
stocks of gold held by central banks have been weighing
down the gold price.

Central banks and international bodies, such as the IMF,
hold about a third of all the gold ever mined. More than
34,000 tonnes of it. This is equal to 14 years production
at today's levels and is 10 times annual consumption. The
wool stockpile, relative to the gold stockpile, is a little
heap of dust.

Back in 1991, when the Wool Reserve Price Scheme
collapsed, the Australian Wool Corporation, the then
administrator of the scheme, held more than 820,000
tonnes of wool, about 75 per cent of Australia's
production at the time and just a quarter of total world
wool production.

But the big difference between the two industries is that
wool has gone a long way towards liquidating its
stockpile. It is now around 300,000 tonnes, almost two
thirds less than its peak level in 1991.

The gold industry has hardly begun. Not that anyone
really expects central banks to liquidate their entire gold
holdings. But it is the fear that they are now on the
threshold of liquidating some of the stockpile that has
constantly pressured the gold price lower. In the past 15
months, gold has fallen $US77/oz, or nearly 19 per cent.

If Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and
the UK were to reduce gold to 10 per cent of their
reserves -- now between 11 and 38 percent -- 2,137
tonnes would have to be sold. If France, Germany, Italy
Switzerland and the US did the same, a further 17,688
tonnes would be sold and this would be the equivalent of
nine years of mining output.

Gold miners themselves suggest that the gold price is
affected more by central bank activity these days, than by
the more traditional fundamentals like political and
economic instability and inflation.

"I think that the correlation between gold and inflation has
been broken a long time ago," said Mr Jack Thompson,
CEO of US gold producer Homestake Mining last week.
"It's more a question of supply and demand and what the
central banks do."

So, there may be a place in central banks for
experienced stockpile managers. And perhaps gold
producers should take heed of the plight of wool
growers. There may be a lesson or two in how wool
growers had to readjust to a sudden rise in supply and
how the price signals they had been receiving were
distorted by demand from the stockpile manager.

In 1991, the Australian wool industry was forced to
recognise that world economic realities were far too
powerful to fight, especially with the collapse of
Australia's biggest customer for wool -- the USSR. The
wool Reserve Price Scheme foundered. With massive
wool stocks and a debt of $2.7 billion, the game was
over for wool growers and their price support scheme.

And worse, wool growers had not received the right
messages from the market that there was, in fact, plenty
of wool in the world. Instead of reducing production in
the late 1980s and early 1990s, Australia's wool
production soared to hit a record 1.1 million tonnes in
1989-90, the year before the price support scheme
collapsed.

For a while, the Australian Government used sandbags to
hold back the inevitable rising tide of market forces. The
floor price for wool was reduced. But still the levy broke
under the forces of slumping demand and over-supply.
The last line of defence was abandoned -- no more price
support, no more wool central bank.

The stockpile had to go. The wool market had to take its
medicine. Inevitably, wool prices collapsed and today
more than 15 per cent of Australia's wool growers are
terminally bankrupt, according to Dr Bob Richardson of
Wool International, the body responsible for liquidating
the stockpile.

But the wool market is in recovery mode. The stockpile
has been significantly reduced, wool production has fallen
dramatically as the price signals finally hit home (albeit,
none too subtly), adjustment has been made for the loss
of the USSR and wool prices are back up at reasonable
levels.

The parallels between the wool story and the gold market
are many.

Already this decade central banks have begun to reduce
their gold holdings. They have sold more than 2,500
tonnes. But the key to further liquidation depends on the
role of gold in the world monetary system. For 200
years, gold was central to international trade and was
unquestioned as a medium of exchange and store of
value.

Now, just as the world economy has dramatically
changed over the past 200 years, so too has the role of
gold as a monetary asset. Some analysts, such as Andy
Smith at Union Bank of Switzerland and Ted Arnold at
Merrill Lynch, argue that gold is losing its monetary
status; that it is less a reserve currency now with the
absolute termination of the gold standard in 1968; that it
is losing its usefulness as a hedge against inflation and as
the ultimate insurance against catastrophe.

Such views have triggered a general fear in the gold
market that central banks will reduce their holdings of
gold. Central bank gold is increasingly seen as a
commodity, as a stockpile hanging over the heads of gold
producers and central banks, just as the wool stockpile
hung over wool growers.

And if gold is viewed more as a commodity and less as a
monetary instrument, then on traditional measures of
valuing commodities, such as stocks-to-use ratios, the
price of gold would be way below where it is today. The
World Gold Council, a body representing gold
producers, disagrees with such views.

It suggests that due to gold's monetary role, then
traditional measures of commodity fundamentals --
measures such as stocks-to-use ratios -- are
inappropriate. It argues that the gold stockpile is a
necessary component of a central bank's asset portfolio.
It is therefore isolated from the market place and these
stocks should be ignored.

In fact, this has been, until recently, the conventional
wisdom in the gold market. Analysts, especially those
that work for stock brokers whose job it is to sell gold
shares, would forecast future gold mine production and
future gold consumption to make their gold price
forecasts. No mention was made of 34,000 tonnes of
gold locked up in the vaults of central banks, nor the
mass of bullion privately hoarded.

But things have changed quite a bit. Union Bank of
Switzerland's precious metals analyst, Andy Smith,
published a report last week entitled, Central Bank
Gold -- The Picture of Less Reserve.

"The official (central bank) attachment to gold has little to
do with gold's advantages as a medium of exchange -- its
"transactions role", Smith wrote. "Gold has long lost its
transactions day-job to hard currency."

In the past 20 years, central bank gold reserves have
hardly changed, while foreign exchange reserves have
risen by 400 per cent.

More central bank gold sales "are certain" Smith argues.
In his view, this is clear from the radically changed
attitude to gold by the Swiss National Bank, the doyen of
central bank conservatism. To Smith, the issue now is
how much, and by what means, will central bank gold be
liquidated.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1765823

[long-gone]

To:John Barendrecht who wrote (537)
From: Pat O'Brien Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 12:45 PM
Respond to of 82910

John, thanks for posting the article on the "Study of US Mining". Well done.
Respectfully, Pat O'Brien

To:John Barendrecht who wrote (538)
From: Alex Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 1:22 PM
Respond to of 82910

Gold stocks during the great crash....
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html

[long-gone]

To:Alex who wrote (535)
From: John Barendrecht Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 12:14 PM
Respond to of 82910

NY precious metals mixed early, heavy gold lending
NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuter) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mixed in quiet trade early Tuesday, with gold lending to hedge funds and producers continuing to fuel the downtrend, but the platinum group metals (PGM) physical market remained highly backwardated, despite reports the Russians were resuming sales into the spot market.
``There's not much going on on the COMEX floor, but it looks like there's been some producer and fabricator offtake which has provided some cushion, though its not giving gold a bounce yet,'' North American Equity Services floor trade, John Geraghty said.
COMEX August gold was down $1.10 at $319.70 an ounce after the first hour of trade, with the August/September spread narrowing to $3.20 an ounce from $3.40 Monday.
In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $318.80/30, compared to the London Tuesday morning fix at $319.00 and the New York close Monday around $319.70/10.
But the implied gold lease rate curve became inverted Tuesday, with one month rates, at 2.35 percent, now higher than 12 month rates at 2.16 percent.
``The lease rates just reflect the extent of borrowing by hedge funds and producers to fund short positions and forward sales,'' one senior New York bullion banker said.
``The problem is the higher rates are attracting even more lending by central banks,'' he said.
Gold fixed at a 12 year low last week at $315.75 in London, after news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which encouraged more short selling by hedge funds.
COMEX gold open interest, at 214,421 contracts Monday, is at its highest levels in 18 months, and net short positions held by funds are at record levels, according to the CFTC Commitments of Traders data.
But OTC market positions are often two to three times greater than exchange-traded positions, and as a result speculative short positions by hedge funds may have increased by about 500 tonnes in recent weeks, an amount equivalent to one year's production by South African gold mines, analysts said.
COMEX September silver was up 0.5 cent at $4.280 an ounce, as the contract continues to consolidate above contract lows seen last week at $417.50. The September/December spread was steady around 6.0 cents an ounce.
But the PGM market remained highly backwardated, despite reports of a resumption of Russiane exports, after a six month suspension.
NYMEX October platinum was up $1.50 at $390.00 an ounce, but spot platinum in the physical market remained above $400 an ounce, quoted $403.00/407.00, while one month platinum lease rates remained offered around 50 percent.
NYMEX September palladium was up $1.55 at $154.00, with spot palladium around $172.00/176.00, with one month palladium lease rates around 80 pct.
Russia's metal export agency, Almaz, confirmed overnight it had resumed exports of PGMs to Japan last week, while Ralf Drieselmann, the head trader at European catalytic converter maker, Degussa, said the Russians had begun offering PGMs in the spot market also.
But U.S. refining sources said they had not seen any offers from Almaz in the U.S. market and in fact believed Almaz had been on the bid on NYMEX September palladium early Tuesday, perhaps to cover short postions.
``The market for palladium especially remains tight, with sponge still at a premium to ingot,'' one refining source said.
Russia supplies about 60 percent of the world's palladium and about 20 percent of its platinum.

[long-gone]

To:Alex who wrote (536)
From: John Barendrecht Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 12:13 PM
Respond to of 82910

Study Shows Mining Generates $524 Billion for U.S. Economy
WASHINGTON, July 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The domestic mining industry had a combined direct and indirect impact on the economy of the United States of nearly $524 billion in 1995, according to a new study released today by the Western Economic Analysis Center on behalf of the National Mining Association.
The study, Everything Begins With Mining -- Mining and the American Economy, shows that mining has an importance in the economy disproportionate to its size, NMA President and CEO Richard L. Lawson said.
``Mining literally takes a part of nature that has little or no economic value and creates something of value from it. Much of America's prosperity is due to an abundant supply of mineral resources,'' Lawson said.
``This study, for the first time, captures the direct and indirect results in the economies of localities, states, regions and the nation as mineral resources and wealth circulate and recirculate,'' Lawson said.
``When you look beneath the surface, everything begins with mining and we're just scratching the surface today,'' Lawson said. ``We want to track the resources in all dimensions and at every step. This study looks at the initial step, from the mine to the first customer. Subsequent studies will follow the added value of mined products through the manufacturing process to finished consumer goods, which will show the comprehensive economic impact of mining.''
A major finding of the study is that people do not have to live in an obvious mining state or work directly in the mining industry to benefit from mining. In fact, many residents, businesses and governments in states with only small amounts of mining activity receive large economic gains from mining in other states.
According to the study's author, Dr. George F. Leaming, the domestic mining industry generated $48.4 billion directly to the U.S. economy in 1995. This total includes direct payments of $27 billion to American businesses; $14.5 billion in personal income for Americans, including wages and salaries for the industry's 320,400 employees; $3.5 billion in taxes and other revenues to the federal government; and $3.3 billion in taxes to state and local governments.
As the industry's direct economic contributions circulate through the economy, the financial impacts of mining are magnified. According to the study, mining's direct and indirect impact on the U.S. economy in 1995 totaled $523.6 billion. This amount includes $295.7 billion in income for businesses that support mining; $143.7 billion in personal income for the 5 million jobs supported indirectly by mining; $56.9 billion in taxes and other revenue for the federal government; and $27.1 billion in state and local government taxes and revenues.
Among the 50 states, California received the greatest economic benefit from the mining industry, according to the study. California ranked first in combined direct and indirect economic benefit from the mining of solid minerals, even though it ranked only fifth in the value of mineral production.
The California economy gained more than $52 billion and 469,000 jobs in 1995 as a result of the combined direct and indirect impacts of mining throughout the United States, the study showed.
``California's gain came not only as a result of the state's role as a minerals producer, but also because of its role as a manufacturing, trade, service and financial center for much of the western United States,'' Leaming said.
New York received the second greatest gain with a total boost to its economy of more than $31 billion and more than 227,000 jobs. Texas was not far behind with a gain of almost $29 billion and more than 308,000 jobs as a direct and indirect result of mining in the United States.
Among the top 20 states that gained the most personal, business and government income directly and indirectly from mining, 12 (California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia) received more business income from mining in other states, although they had significant mining industries of their own.
Among the top 20 states, only two (California and Arizona) are in the public lands areas of the West, traditionally thought of as being the center of American mining. Six states (Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota and Missouri) are in the Midwest, while eight (Kentucky, West Virginia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Alabama) are in the South. Another four (New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Massachusetts) are in the Northeast.
The study also showed that the total benefit to the nation's economy was nearly nine times the $60 billion value of solid minerals mined in the United States in 1995.
Moreover, the total number of American jobs created both directly and indirectly by the domestic mining industry was more than 15 times the number of workers directly involved in mining. The total personal income generated from mining was enough to pay the wages of nearly 5 million American workers, only 6 percent of whom were actually employed in mining.
``If mining were to cease within the United States, those nearly 5 million people and their families would lose that income, but the nation would still require minerals for making automobiles and other consumer products, for housing and highways, for farming, for electricity generation and countless other uses,'' Leaming said.
``To maintain the standard of living of its people and its place in the global economy, the nation will continue to need minerals,'' Leaming said. ``Without mining, the ability of the U.S. economy to meet the needs of its people and maintain its global position would be reduced severely. And so would the abilities of 5 million Americans to meet their needs and those of their families.''

[long-gone]

To:mikesloan who wrote (534)
From: Alex Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 9:22 AM
Respond to of 82910

http://www.abn-online.com/abn/headlines/index.html
To:Alex who wrote (535)
From: Alex Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 9:31 AM
Respond to of 82910

Defense report calls for controversial emergency laws
By TOSHIO JO

Asahi Evening News

The government should take legislative action to enact a set of emergency laws to prepare the nation for any international situation that might have a grave impact on Japan's security, an annual government report said today.

Not only research, but actual enactment of such laws is called for, although such a move would require a highly political decision on the part of the government, the white paper on defense said.

The report was approved by the Cabinet today.

The report drew attention to the need to pass emergency laws--a touchy subject because they could involve measures to restrict constitutionally guaranteed rights for individuals to protect the lives and assets of the people.

The annual report said it is necessary to enact such laws at a time when the issue has become one of the key elements in the ongoing drafting of new guidelines on Japan-U.S. defense cooperation.

The issue remains a politically delicate matter, however. The Social Democratic Party, one of the three ruling coalition parties, remains extremely sensitive to such a move on the grounds that it could be constitutionally questionable.

The defense report emphasizes the importance of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty in the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific region.

"In the Asia-Pacific region where a stable security environment has yet to be achieved, bilateral alliances led by the United States and the U.S. military presence play a crucial role in peace and stability in this region," the report said.

In this context, the report said that the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty is indispensable for the ensuring of peace and stability in Japan and its surrounding region. The report fails to define the scope of the "surrounding area," however.

In reference to the ongoing drafting of new guidelines on Japan-U.S. defense cooperation, the report says that it is increasingly important to step up joint defense efforts based on the guidelines in order for Japan to cope with instability and uncertainty in the region.

The report did not name any particular country, but it is generally believed that a crisis on the Korean Peninsula and a possible conflict between China and Taiwan are on the minds of defense planners.

On the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), the report reiterated that the country remains a "major element of instability" for East Asia, including Japan.

"North Korea is believed to be engaged in research and development to make the range of its ballistic missiles longer, which is raising military tensions on the Korean Peninsula," the report noted.

On China, the report said that it is necessary to closely monitor the modernization of its nuclear, naval and air force capabilities, the anticipated expansion of the scope of its military activities at sea, and the situation of the Taiwan Strait.

In reference to Russia, the report reiterated that the Russian military force in the Far East needs to be monitored closely because its future remains uncertain just as Russia's domestic political situation is uncertain and fluid.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1763421

[long-gone]

To:mikesloan who wrote (533)
From: mikesloan Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 9:11 AM
Respond to of 82910

Asia currencies not in crisis--MOF's Sakakibara
TOKYO, July 15 (Reuter) - Asian currencies are not in a crisis situation and Japan will cooperate
where it can while watching Asian currency moves, Eisuke Sakakibara, the Ministry of Finance's
newly appointed vice minister for international affairs, told a news conference on Tuesday.

Sakakibara also reiterated the ministry's stance that Japan's surplus in the trade of goods and
services will not increase significantly, looking at the current fiscal year as a whole.

He added that a slight rise in the surplus was possible, but said even such increases would not lead
to trade friction.

``We have been saying that there won't be a significant increase in the surplus. We do not believe
the surplus will become an issue and lead to trade friction,'' Sakakibara said.

Sakakibara said that he will not comment on currency levels but that it was part of the
government's job to relay its outlook on the economy and current account balances.

``When the market is in a frenzy for no legitimate reason, one of our important tasks is to
communicate correct information to the market,'' he said.

Sakakibara said that Japan will make efforts to reach an agreement on the World Trade
Organisation's financial services talks by the end of this year.

He added that Japan will continue pursuing liberalisation of the financial services sector.

Asked about the Thai baht crisis and the economic outlook in Asia, Sakakibara said, ``I don't think
it's a crisis. Thailand is taking appropriate steps.''

He explained that Thailand addressed issues concerning the financial sector, raised interest rates
and tightened state finances before floating the baht, which was ``an extremely appropriate''
measure.

``Thailand, as well as the Philippines, is not in a critical situation,'' he said.

He added that the Philippines is nearing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
on loans and that it has made its currency rate flexible, which is a positive step.

``We will keep watch over Asia's situation and cooperate where we can,'' he said.

Asked whether Tokyo had any plans to formulate a rescue package for Thailand, Sakakibara said:
``It all depends on what kind of request the Thai side makes. Without that (request), I cannot
comment on what the Japanese side can do.''

Thailand's finance and foreign ministers are scheduled to visit Japan later this week for talks
regarding the Southeast Asian nation's recent currency woes.

Sakakibara said that the situation in Thailand today was different from that faced by Mexico during
a currency crisis more than two years ago.

``It is not appropriate to think of Asia now as analogous to Mexico,'' he said.

[long-gone]

To:Bear who wrote (530)
From: Alex Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 3:34 AM
Respond to of 82910

http://www.asiatimes.com/97/07/15/15079704.html

To:Alex who wrote (531)
From: Alex Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 3:43 AM
Respond to of 82910

http://www.asia-inc.com/archive/1997/9706fplw.html
To:Alex who wrote (532)
From: mikesloan Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 9:04 AM
Respond to of 82910

Japan has no interest in acquiring gold.
Tuesday July 15 7:08 AM EDT

Sakakibara says has no interest in gold holdings

TOKYO, July 15 (Reuter) - Eisuke Sakakibara, the Japanese Finance Ministry's newly appointed
vice minister for international affairs, said on Tuesday he has no interest in gold after its position in
the international monetary system changed drastically over the past 10 to 20 years.

Asked if Japan has any plan to increase or decrese its gold holdings, which are currently much
lower than those of many other industrialised nations, Sakakibara said: ``Gold's lustre has declined
and I have no interest in gold now.''
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1763235

[long-gone]

To:mikesloan who wrote (529)
From: Bear Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 2:19 AM
Respond to of 82910

The Northern Miner Vol. 83 No. 20 July 14, 1997
Gold reaches 12-year low -- Central bank sales depress price to US$314

BY JAMES WHYTE

Maybe it's a good thing Busang wasn't real.

Recent days have seen the gold price fall to levels not seen since 1985, as sellers crowd the market
and buyers bide their time.

The usual suspects in the assault on gold are the Western central banks, which have been consistent
sellers over the past decade. The current price collapse has been traced to a July 3 announcement
by the Reserve Bank of Australia that it had sold 167 tonnes (about 5.4 million oz.) into the spot
market over the past six months.

The immediate response was panic. Fearing that the sale could forshadow further sales from the
central banks, producers locked in sales on the futures markets, forcing sellers of physical metal to
cut prices on the spot market. The July 4 morning fix on the London bullion market was US$325.20
per oz., a decline of US$7.35 from the previous afternoon fix. Traders passed a nervous weekend,
then grabbed the phones once more at the opening on July 7, sending the yellow metal down to
US$318.75. The spot price touched US$313.95 in New York trading on July 8, its lowest price
since July 11, 1985.

The London fix on the morning of July 9 was US$315.75, its lowest figure since July 12, 1985; by
the afternoon fix, there had been a slight rally to US$317.30. The closing bid price on New York
was US$317.70, and, at presstime, pre-Market bids in the Far East were US$318.70.

A trader at one of the Big Five London bullion merchants told The Northern Miner that potential
buyers were probably still on the sidelines, waiting for the price to touch bottom. "Asia is the main
market for physical offtake, but these guys are not going to buy at just any old level. If they think it's
going to come down further, they're going to wait and then step back in."

Neither did he think it likely that the commodity funds might change from bears to bulls: "From the
funds' point of view, they're making money on a daily basis in the contango market, so if they're
short the metal, it pays them to be short still."

A Hong Kong-based bullion trader with another Big Five merchant said there had been little
increase in physical demand for gold, and that most of the sales in recent days had been absorbed
by short sellers taking profits and covering existing short positions. A third trader, now retired,
pointed out that the jewelry industry (which, along with electronics, is the principal end-user of gold)
normally is not a heavy buyer until August, and that it had long been understood that slow industrial
offtake made July the best time of year to short gold.

Their views seem to be borne out by the pattern of trading over recent days, with rallies in the
London spot market as short sellers took profits, followed by declines during the New York trading
period as futures traders depressed the price.

There remains a strong sentiment that 1997 could see large-scale unloading of gold by European
central banks. Low book valuations of central bank gold reserves give governments an incentive to
sell at market prices and so show a profit for the treasury; with European monetary union targets for
deficit reduction looming, the German, Belgian and Dutch central banks have all sold bullion over the
past year, and the Swiss, though unaffected by the monetary union, are also rumored to be selling.
Worldwide public-sector sales last year were 239 tonnes (7.7 million oz.) -- about a tenth of total
mine production.

Royal Oak affected

The effect the low price might have on high-Cost gold producers is plain enough; 21 of the Western
World's major producers have cash costs higher than the present spot price. Of these, 18 are South
African, including such names as East Rand, Vaal Reefs, and Free State; rounding out the list are
two Australian miners, Newcrest Mining and Kidston Gold, and Royal Oak Mines (RYO-T).

Graham Eacott of Royal Oak acknowledged that the price will likely put the Colomac mine in the
Northwest Territories out of business. Royal Oak, which had already announced it would take a
US$30-Million writedown of the asset on its next quarterly report, is expecting cash costs of
US$376 per oz. at Colomac this year, and, with declining reserves and grades, Royal Oak thinks
the mine is near the end of its life.

Colomac faces another problem in that it has road access only three months of the year. "To take in
supplies for 1998, from January through March of this year, there has to be incentive . . . reserves
that are economic, plus cash costs that are low enough to make it worthwhile, and neither of those
two criteria would be met."

Uncertainty at Colomac

Exploration drilling below the pit floor still offers some potential for building a new reserve.
Expanding the pit to include new reserves might allow for continued operation, but exploration has
not advanced far enough to justify development.

Royal Oak had already announced that its Hope Brook mine in southwestern Newfoundland would
close at the end of September, but, said Eacott, "we're now looking at the end of July, because the
reserves are running out." He said Royal Oak's other operations notably the Giant mine in
Yellowknife, N.W.T. and the Pamour division in Timmins, Ont. -- are protected by forward sales at
US$395 per oz. "We are protected this year, but exposed thereafter."

Several Quebec operations might be threatened, including the Silidor mine near Rouyn, Que., owned
jointly by Battle Mountain Canada (BMC-T) and Cambior (CBJ-T). Silidor posted a cash cost of
US$333 per oz. in 1996, and, in any event, dwindling reserves are expected to result in closure at
the end of 1997. TVX Gold (TVX-T) has already announced that the Casa Berardi mine, west of
Joutel, Que., will shut down unless it can find a buyer.

It is not yet clear how the gold market might affect McWatters Mining (MCW.A-M) in its
agreement to buy from Placer Dome (PDG-T) the Kiena and Sigma mines, both of which are in Val
d'Or, Que. Costs at Sigma have risen steadily, touching US$436 per oz. in 1996, while Kiena's cash
cost was much lower, at US$247 per oz.; both operations have shown lower costs this year.

McWatters must arrange a US$70-Million financing to take over the two projects and the gold price
slump is not helping with that effort.

In Ontario, the Macassa mine, near Kirkland Lake, has traditionally been a low-Cost producer, but
a rock burst in April may have rendered some reserves unrecoverable. Owner Kinross Gold (K-T)
suspended operations in early June to address safety concerns raised by the Ontario Ministry of
Labour, and the comapny has not yet disclosed its plans for the mine. If safe mining will increase
cash costs significantly and if reserves in lost stopes cannot be recovered, Macassa may close.

Another Ontario producer which has seen better days is Goldcorp (G-T), whose Red Lake mine is
still shut down by a strike. The cash cost in 1996 was US$309 per oz., but Goldcorp expected to
decrease that substantially by developing new higher-grade reserves on the down-plunge extension
of Placer Dome's adjoining Campbell orebody.

Bear

[long-gone]

To:mikesloan who wrote (528)
From: mikesloan Tuesday, Jul 15, 1997 1:37 AM
Respond to of 82910

Additional signs of the new world order?
Don't mention the euro as Germany
prepares for E-Day to dawn in City

The Times July 15/97

For bankers, an affirmative answer to the question Sprechen
Sie Deutsch could become vital to their careers. Speaking
German may soon be essential for working in the City.

For years, the growing number of Germans in the City have
been subjected to the time-honoured taunt of "don't mention
ze war". Their employers had either bought old British houses
such as Kleinwort Benson or established new head offices in
London. During induction weeks, the German bankers were
told to humour the Brits and their hang-ups. The jibes were
met with well-practised smiles and the peace was kept in City
wine bars.

But the balance of power seems to be dipping the other way.
The war that currently dominates wine bar talk is the war
between Frankfurt and London as financial centres. And this
time, the Germans could be on the winning side.

Frankfurt has ambitions to match London's position as the
best place in Europe to take large amounts of money. Of
course, this is not the first time they have said this. So far, the
usual response from the British has been a belly laugh. No
more. Now, it is British bankers who smile politely with a hint
of embarrassment and try to recall a few German O-level
phrases. What has happened?

Frankfurt has assembled an impressive set of levers to propel
itself towards pole position. And it has recruited the Paris
exchanges as partners. For the first time in its history, the City
is facing a serious threat.

Germany began its assault on London's market position with
a total reform of the way the equity and futures markets
operate. In 1994, insider dealing was made illegal to counter
accusations that the German markets could not be trusted
because of the lack of effective supervisory control.

Reserve requirements imposed on all banks by the
Bundesbank were also gradually lifted to improve Frankfurt's
attractiveness. And German companies were encouraged to
break with tradition and seek listings rather than be owned
privately by large institutions.

The Frankfurt stock index, the Dax, has doubled in little more
than two years, closing at an all-time high yesterday. Last
year's flotation of Deutsche Telekom was Europe's biggest.

But getting the local trading environment right was never
going to be enough to challenge London's position.
Frankfurt's trump card is the single European currency, which
is only about 350 working days away.

It is on the euro that Germany is pinning its hopes. What
impact the single currency - and Britain's absence from it -
could have on the flows of money is particularly obvious to
businessmen operating and banking on both sides of the
Channel. Bernd Pischetsrieder, the chief executive of BMW,
which owns Rover, recently said: "If Britain should stay out
for a long time at the beginning [of Emu] the financial capital
of Europe will be Frankfurt, not London."

European companies such as BMW or Unilever would be
likely to see Frankfurt as the best place to see their shares
listed after a re-denomination of the shares into euros. Not
only would the need for currency conversions be greatly
reduced but Frankfurt would also be the home of the
European Central Bank, which will set euro interest rates.

Furthermore, if Britain stayed out of Emu, British-based
banks run the risk of not being admitted fully to Target, the
new pan-European payments system. The Bundesbank and
the Bank of England have for months been locked in talks
over the system.

Under the thin disguise of academic debate between central
bankers, the two institutions have been battling for their
respective interests. Frankfurt is trying to keep non-Emu
members out of Target by arguing that it needs to retain the
fullest possible control. London has taken up the familiar
theme of a multiple-speed Europe in which an independent
British financial centre would have priority links with the
Continent.

The ferosity with which the Target debate is being pursued in
Frankfurt has surprised the Bank. The Bundesbank is a
recent convert to Frankfurt's cause. Only now that it is about
to lose power to the European Central Bank, has it shed its
studied indifference.

London's strong point over the last decades had always been
the unrivalled liquidity of its markets. Pension fund money,
Arab money, small savers' money - a vast amount of it was
available in London while continental exchanges suffered at
times from a lack of buyers and sellers.

Frankfurt has had to acknowledge that it is unlikely to match
London's liquidity overnight. At least on its own. The heads
of the bourse and the futures market came up with a plan to
combine their operations with the next biggest financial centre
in Europe - Paris.

The French connection has now reached an advanced stage.
The two stock exchanges say they will start trading on single
joint computer screen from the middle of next year.

The futures exchanges are aiming to do the same but at the
momemt Paris still operates an open-outcry system.
However, J”rg Franke, a board member of the Terminb”rse
in Frankfurt, said that a link-up was likely after an expected
move to screen-trading in Paris.

Only last week, Liffe, the London futures exchange,
reaffirmed its commitment to open-outcry trading as the most
efficient system, guaranteeing the highest degree of liquidity.

Herr Franke retorted that screen-trading reduced market
participants' cost by half.

The argument over trading systems is really a metaphor for
the different cultures of banking on respective sides of the
Channel. London is staking its future on the traditional
techniques that generated fortunes over decades, while
Frankfurt is copying the more technically advanced methods
of the highly successful American banks, which are now just
as dominant in Frankfurt as they are in London.

In Frankfurt, the British low-tech option is considered as
redundant as the House of Lords. German bankers see
themselves winning in the race with London because they pay
more attention to new methods that can boost profits.

Ulrich Schr”der, a policy analyst at Deutsche Bank, said:
"Due to a new consciousness, Continental centres such as
Paris and Frankfurt will improve their performance and close
the gap to London."

The official City's reaction to Frankfurt's ambition has been
marked by complacency. When The Times first contacted
the London Stock Exchange regarding the alliance between
Frankfurt and London, the exchange knew nothing about it.
Gavin Casey, the LSE chief executive, remarked that the
Continental exchanges have tried to co-operate before and
failed. He delighted in recalling that 35 per cent of top
European companies are listed in London. But even Mr
Casey had to admit that Emu is a threat.

The City's favourite statistic with regards to Frankfurt is a
survey of the number of banks situated by the River Main.
Some 7 per cent of Frankfurt's banks left the city last year.
But the Frankfurt Chamber of Commerce said the closures
were mainly by less prominent banks that had not been doing
business in the city.

The large investment banks are all increasing staff levels in
Germany at the moment. For British bankers, this is no time
to discard old German textbooks and O-level notes. The
arrival in massed ranks is expected in Frankfurt on E-Day,
the day the euro becomes legal tender, most likely to be
January 1, 1999.

Until such times, their German colleagues will tell each other
in the wine bars of the City: "Don't mention the euro."

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=1762455