THE MARKET On Monday we hit new highs on lower volume with weaker internals then Tuesday the market turned down on rising volume. If the marketed wanted to correct, that's was good set-up for it. The naz had support at its 20 Day EMA 2090 broke that support today... next support 2056 then 2025 which is its 50 Day EMA. WE DO NOT WANT TO BREAK THAT... As long as the major averages can hold support near their 50 Day EMA's the Bull Market remains intact...WATCH 2056.83 IT'S THE 10-day moving average closing below it would greatly increase the odds that a short-term top has been established . When a market backdrop is in a fully in-gear position, it's rare to see an inverted "V"-type top put in place. The market usually needs to see at least a few up-down sequences where certain indicators start to lag - in other words, distribution becomes visible....we maybe witnessing this.... IMHO The next couple of days will be THE TEST ... be prepared for some more significant volatility as this is testing grounds.
IDCC.... We are.... like the market.... in testing mode.... we broke through our 5 day mva yesterday which was good...but today we bounced off it and closed lower...
I NOTED IN MY POST Date:1/26/2004 That takes us to this week.....[ THATS LAST WEEK ]after hitting our high on Tuesday we have been slowly loosing ground everyday...with lower intraday lows and lower intraday highs....the candlestick chart said to expect the weakening ON THE SAME DAY day we hit our monthly intraday high of 25.80.
OK....so where do we go from here....theoretically we may drop to the mid or low 23s our 20-Day mva ---- is 23.12 The key next week is bouncing off the 23s... staying out of the 22's ...we have minor support at around 22.25 ...if we break that then next support is our 50-Day----21.11 and then our 100 day at 19.12 . I see no reason short of continued market weakness or bad news that would bring us to the lowest levels. Hitting 24.11 this past Friday bothered me a bit as that was the lowest number we have hit in the 24s this month and it seemed to confirm a possible short term trend.
Once we establish our bottom we may bounce around a bit and move up prior to earnings...my guess is that our next move up could take us into the 26's....ofcourse any good news will act as a catalyst to move us higher,,, and bad news the opposite. .FED NEWS...HURT US... http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2221182
TODAY.... Since my post of 1/26/ we have been bouncing around with the market... yesterday and today we hit our lows of 24 twice.... confirming our strong base.....but demonstrating some weakness ... we are in prime testing mode....right NOW...there is a chance we could move into the 23's but assuming the market holds up we should move back up...shortly.... In any case ....as we move forwaed into the spring we look ok.
AS ALWAYS YOUR COMMENTS AND THOUGHTS ARE APPRECIATED...ALLEY
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