Replies to post #196781 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[federal reserves]

ZEEV - i see ya got a bear suit on...


Just my 2cent. First of all, I don't know what's going to happen. I'm just hangin on to market shorts waiting for the
bubble to pop so I can collect on the way down.

NDX/SNP broke upward out of a consolidation during DEC/JAN on FED pumping and anticipation of good earnings here in this quarter. No question, the FED wanted a holly/jolly
XMAS and they pulled out all the stops.

Nonwithstanding, at least the NDX BROKE that uptrend line this week.

Right now, the FED has the Repo stack hanging lower than a 90year old man's nut sack. The VIX is so low its telling me folks are walking the high wire without a net... Last
TWO YEARS RUNNING the FED drained in Jan/Feb. Will they do so similar this year? If so, Monday is the day they confirm it. They stop pumping and hold the repo stack low.

I suggest if they don't pump on Monday, the market takes a hit in the nut sack. The bulls foot will slip on the pedal and clomp their nuts on the bike rail and you'll hear the hollering. The FED has
got 2.75 expiring monday. With the repo's so low, we got to watch the coupon pass too. I've seen
them lower the stack, then jam in repo's.

Its as simple as that.

Last time they had the repo sack this low (Friday 1/9), the following monday they came out pumping! They shot in nearly 9 billion and the market on the verge of slumping came alive.

In my mind stock markets are about liquidity and confidence, and stock investors are the epitome of dumb money, both fund manager and retail buyer alike, and when confidence drops, they are the first to panic and die, especially when liquidity is low.

As you know, I figure a big accident is about to happen.

Lets see what happens.

[limtex]

There is clearly a recovery even if some of the earnings aren't up to the highest expectations, nevertheless corporate earnings and revenues are increasing.

Cap ex is expanding BTBs are increasing and execs sound more upbeat than htey ahve for three years and they have the three year bear to remember.

So little market swoons to 1900 or the like will be hapening, if they happen, against a background of an improving economy a nice drip of interim announcments and the Fed firmly behind all of it ready to act and firmly at that.

That ought to make a difference from the last three years.

I just don't see fund managers buying stock to hold until the election. There are three qtrs announcements to go. With each one the institutions will become more cautious at least thats nmy guess.

We have just seen what happens when people wait for earnings and stocks had big drops on what were in some cases fantastic earnings. That is telling us something.

Anyway a tug of war between the Fed and an expanding economy and a bunch of nervous investors whose memories are recently seared with a three year bear market. That is a tug of war till the election.......