@WBMW - Q1-2008 prices
Your Intel line looks "correct", at least I'm expecting the
same - for AMD I wouldn't go that far. I think the whole Phenom
line will be a bit higher priced but who knows - it will
mostly depend on how strong the Penryn IPC vs. K10 really
comes out. If Penryn can give around +5% overall and if K10 is
on par with "old" C2D, your prices look very reasonable.
But it doesn't really matter, if we give 10$ for some Phenoms
more or less, the picture will look UGLY - thats it. Thats
why I haven't understood, how analysts could speak about
margin adder when K10 ramps, when they completly forget,
that the old line goes way down in the pricing ladder and
still dominates volume. Crazy. If this scenario will come
true, AMD will look like VIA in mid 2008. At this point, they
will have probably burned another 1,5-2,0B in cash. I re-
iterate my SI book-value goal for mid 2008 here - 4-5$.
In this environment AMD is a 3-5$ stock - not a penny more.
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