Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

Re: BTW: some clock and launch plans here:

Buggi, this is the key thing right here:

The 3.0 GHz Phenom processor that AMD demonstrated last week during its Analyst Day does not appear anywhere in the most recent desktop roadmap.

They just discussed roadmaps that go through Q2 2008. So whatever AMD demoed, it's clearly not able to be used as a production part. Why not...?

Plus, this range of frequencies of their chips clearly shows that they have yet to characterize their bin splits. What if they end up at the low end of their range? Even lower ASPs....

By Q1 2008, I think Intel's lineup will look like this:

$999 - Intel Core 2 Extreme (Yorkfield) 3.33GHz
$530 - Intel Core 2 Quad (Yorkfield) 3.20GHz
$266 - Intel Core 2 Quad (Yorkfield) 2.93GHz
$266 - Intel Core 2 Duo (Wolfdale) 3.33GHz
$183 - Intel Core 2 Quad (Kentsfield/Yorkfield) 2.66GHz
$183 - Intel Core 2 Duo (Conroe/Wolfdale) 3.0GHz
$163 - Intel Core 2 Duo (Conroe/Wolfdale) 2.66GHz
$133 - Intel Core 2 Duo (Allendale) 2.6GHz
$113 - Intel Core 2 Duo (Allendale) 2.4GHz
$84 - Intel Pentium Dual Core (Allendale) 2.2GHz
$71 - Intel Pentium Dual Core (Allendale) 2.0GHz
$59 - Intel Pentium Dual Core (Allendale) 1.8GHz

In order to compete for perf/$, I think AMD's price list will have to include the following (best case frequencies):

$599/pair - AMD Phenom FX 2.6GHz
$179 - AMD Phenom X4 2.4GHz
$159 - AMD Phenom X4 2.2GHz
$149 - AMD Phenom X2 2.8GHz
$139 - AMD Phenom X2 2.6GHz
$119 - AMD Phenom X2 2.4GHz
$99 - AMD Phenom X2 2.2GHz
$89 - AMD Brisbane 2.6GHz
$79 - AMD Brisbane 2.5GHz
$69 - AMD Brisbane 2.3GHz
$59 - AMD Brisbane 2.1GHz

In other words, lower ASPs than today, at higher cost of sales due to the larger die. Now just imagine AMD comes 200-400MHz below their goals, towards the low end of the range....

I think it will be interesting to bookmark this and revisit it in 6 months. <G>