Replies to post #4344 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[shears]

Does anyone have updated projections on the annual incidence in the US and EU re: severe sepsis WITH DIC?

Back of the napkin analysis:

If one assumes 225K deaths per year due to severe sepsis/DIC in US alone and assumes most of those who died would have been candidates for DIC treatment and a fair chunk of the survivors would have been as well then I would conservatively estimate an annual pool of 0.5 Million people in US and EU as treatment candidates. Let's say GTCB/LEO can capture 20% of that market (higher than Xigress [$7000/Rx] since bleeding is not an issue and lower cost).

Lets say Atryn costs $4500 to treat a case of DIC/sepsis.

15%(GTCB share ?) * $4500 * 20% * 0.5M/yr = $ 68M/yr to GTCB pre-tax.

I'm certain there are alot of flaws in my analysis and assumptions but revenue in that range by 2010+ helps support the notion that this company is pretty undervalued, even if one assumes <50% chance Atryn will ever get the DIC indication. Given the problems with current state of the art with Xigris and encouraging early clinical results with Atryn without heparin I personally think there's a 70% chance of success. The market is yearning for something better than Xigris and Atryn is it, IMO.

[Pre_Clinical]

>>>>>>>>>
LOL this excedes ridiculous. Give him one more aliais Mabad. The fact we have people on this site that were taken in by this guy is embarrasing. Low point in his comments was his attack on Atryn's use in DIC by dismissing the results as pertaining to a "subset" of patients. Yeah they were a subset alright, those who received AT3 without Heparin. This group was identified by careful analysis and showed a 14% increase in long term survival. This is hugely significant and unless shown to be in error by studies will indeed turn Atryn into a blockbuster drug.
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I expressed concern about the risk involved in starting a clinical trial in sepsis (the graveyard of many a program) based on a subgroup analysis of a previous clinical trial, and you're the one laughing? You obviously haven't been in this game very long. I also stated that the sepsis program "is tantalizing" but that "I'm not pinning my hopes on it".

It's amazing how there appears to be a zero tolerance policy for any critical analysis of this company's programs and/or technology. Talk about group-think. It's like the DNDN board.

As I stated, I believe that the future of this company involves mAbs and FOB's. That's all. And it's undervalued at that. It's called objectivity. Look it up. I would encourage you to try and be a little more open-minded.