GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[shears]

Does anyone have updated projections on the annual incidence in the US and EU re: severe sepsis WITH DIC?

Back of the napkin analysis:

If one assumes 225K deaths per year due to severe sepsis/DIC in US alone and assumes most of those who died would have been candidates for DIC treatment and a fair chunk of the survivors would have been as well then I would conservatively estimate an annual pool of 0.5 Million people in US and EU as treatment candidates. Let's say GTCB/LEO can capture 20% of that market (higher than Xigress [$7000/Rx] since bleeding is not an issue and lower cost).

Lets say Atryn costs $4500 to treat a case of DIC/sepsis.

15%(GTCB share ?) * $4500 * 20% * 0.5M/yr = $ 68M/yr to GTCB pre-tax.

I'm certain there are alot of flaws in my analysis and assumptions but revenue in that range by 2010+ helps support the notion that this company is pretty undervalued, even if one assumes <50% chance Atryn will ever get the DIC indication. Given the problems with current state of the art with Xigris and encouraging early clinical results with Atryn without heparin I personally think there's a 70% chance of success. The market is yearning for something better than Xigris and Atryn is it, IMO.