ISM is nothing more than a hand count. All those that "think" they are doing better raise your hand. All those doing about the same. All those doing worse. Throw out those doing the same, and subtract the worse from the better and you have your number.
Mostly the recent numbers are looking so good is because there aren't that many who think they are getting worse. 49% think things are about the same. Apparently the real world numbers aren't matching up with what they "think".