Replies to post #1404 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[gofishmarko]

Dew , you should read , then think for a few minutes , before you post that someone is out to lunch. Particularly when that someone has EATEN your lunch on issues relating to IDIX and hep antivirals in general , on numerous occasions. In a year or two , I'm guessing that events will show that this occasion follows that pattern.

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>Although I expect tenofovir to displace adefovir as monotherapy, I wouldn't be surprised if it [adefovir] hangs on as a player in combos, at a lower price point…<

>>> Adefovir (Hepsera) is more expensive than tenofovir (Viread) and will remain so. GILD cannot charge a premium for Viread in HBV because the Viread price is set by the HIV market. <<<

My point was that if tenofovir displaces adefovir in the HBV monotherapy market , that re-pricing of adefovir at a lower point may allow it to be a viable player in combos , in a manner such that total worldwide HBV sales and profits of the two exceed that which would occur if only tenofovir remained on the market. Mainly I was making the point that adefovir and tenofovir may be more different than one would expect , as regards resistance profiles , and therefore there might be value in keeping adefovir on the market for HBV combos.

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>…since it seems that the cross-resistance patterns between adefovir and tenofovir might not be as troublesome as one might expect based on structural similarities.<

>>> If you’re suggesting that Viread + Hepsera will be a commonly used combination, I think you’re out to lunch. Extremely unlikely, IMO <<<


That's not what I was suggesting at all , and I think you know it. I was suggesting that if both remain on the market , as suggested above , that adefovir might be part of some combo that could then be followed by a different combo including tenofovir , if resistance to the first combo develops. The reverse might also be true. Right now it's not clear that cross-resistance between tenofovir and adefovir will be as troublesome as cross-resistance between , say , lam and telbivudine.

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BTW , thanks for reminding me why I continue to post less , and enjoy it more. That's something I don't want to forget.

[DewDiligence]

Here’s a brief excerpt from Forbes/AP on Viread vs
Hepsera. As noted in #msg-21399563, Viread is priced
at a discount to Hepsera, which will pinch GILD’s
margins when Viread begins to supplant Hepsera.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/20/gilead-atripla-hiv-markets-equity-cx_ra_0720markets35.html

>>
“The other concern [Gilead] investors have…is that Gilead has completed two phase III trials of the drug Viread for Hepatitis B and found that Viread is superior to Hepsera, a more expensive drug Gilead currently has on the market. The fear is that Viread will cannibalize the market for Hepsera and profitability will fall,” Sieler said. “I think this is a mistake because Gilead has been losing new patient share to those new drugs for Heptitis B from other companies and Gilead needs a stronger competitor themselves to maintain their new market share.”
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