Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

>Although I expect tenofovir to displace adefovir as monotherapy, I wouldn't be surprised if it [adefovir] hangs on as a player in combos, at a lower price point…<

Adefovir (Hepsera) is more expensive than tenofovir (Viread) and will remain so. GILD cannot charge a premium for Viread in HBV because the Viread price is set by the HIV market.

>…since it seems that the cross-resistance patterns between adefovir and tenofovir might not be as troublesome as one might expect based on structural similarities.<

If you’re suggesting that Viread + Hepsera will be a commonly used combination, I think you’re out to lunch. Extremely unlikely, IMO.

>…NVS, should they choose, will be able to buy the balance of IDIX at a price not very far removed from the current price.<

Again, I strongly disagree. The current enterprise value (~$50M) would be about right, IMO, if Tyzeka did not even exist.