Replies to post #145996 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[xxxxcslewis]

Snack,

I wasn't knocking the numbers. I have analysed Steven's statements for years and have been guilty of hearing or reading what I wanted to hear or read. I am only advising caution in reading into any statement conclusions that may not be there.

A case in point.

It was regularly stated last year there were 20 million TPMs deployed by the end of 2005 and it was expected more than 50 million would be deployed in 2006. Slowly became apparent to me over the course of last year, based on the revenue growth Wave reported, the deployment had to be less than 50 million.

Recently, it has regularly been stated there are 50 million TPMs deployed. So I take that as confirmation that the number of deployed TPMs in 2006 was 30 to 40 million.

Also, Steven regularly refers to units of Wave software deployed. That number I believe refers to all types of Wave software. I erroneously thought he was specifically refering to the bundled Embassy Lite software when in fact he must have been including the chip software. I developed revenue estimate forecasts that were far more optimistic than was reported.

So that is my point. Just be careful in reading any statement that is made and don't read into statements facts that may not be there.

Having said all the above, I expect massive acceptance and deployment of TPMs and trusted computing over the next few years and I expect the $15 million recently raised will get us where we need to be.

Also, I want to add while I am often frustrated with Steven's forecasting efforts and his unique ability to make statements that seem clear, but upon further review say nothing, I have nothing but admiration for him in keeping the company alive and postioning it in the center of the coming Trusted Computing "perfect storm".

[StocWatcher]

Snackman - It might be time to check the prescription on the old reading glasses. I wasn't "knocking" anyone, but rather providing a reasonable justification to those who had questioned the validity of the "numbers" referred to in the recent quote from Cahalin.

Additionally, I just got back from the airport and agree with the reports thus far from the SHM. This is number 5 or 6 for me (I've lost count), and I have never come away with a more positive feeling. The explanation for the timing and the size of the recent funding was understandable. Wave has greatly increased it's presence in the product lines of many of the major players. If indeed Wave software is the "juice" that makes it all work, you can understand why some might want financial evidence of sustainability for more than a quarter at a time.

I was most impressed with Steven's answer regarding software encryption and possible competition from companies such as Secude getting into the "TPM Business."

Thus far the lack of "TPM revenue" has left others disinterested. Wave has spent a considerable amount of time and money positioning the company with products and partnerships that are not easily replaced. Wave has shipped over 10 million copies of their interoperable software in the last year and is currently shipping more than a million copies per month. Wave is included on every Dell and Gateway enterprise computer and Intel motherboard with a TPM. Wave software ships with 4 out of 5 TPM manufactures. Wave is soon to ship with a number of Seagate FDE drives providing secure remote policy management, repurposing and encryption audit verification. Wave will soon release to market (probably with Windows Server 2008) end point enforcement working in conjunction with network authentication and access control. And guess what - it all operates from a common interface and is, here's that word again, "interoperable." Wave has a tremendous first mover advantage. As long as Wave doesn't "screw up," it would seem unlikely that someone could build a sufficiently better mouse trap that would convince the Dell's and Seagate's of the world to change partners midstream.

The Trusted Computing Group standards have been anointed by Mr. Softie, Juniper and Intel. Steven said - when the TCG says "we need this functionality," Wave raises its hand and says "hey we'll do it."

If indeed, as per SKS, there is a Gold Rush a comin' Wave has certainly staked out a lot of claims.

ps The Dell Latitude/Seagate FDE/Wave TDM preview was most impressive and will be playing at a theater near you very shortly. It could well be the block buster hit of the summer!

Nite All

Stoc