<<1. Who's responsible for the anthrax attack on the U.S.? What is the current thinking of that question among Pakistani leadership and elites?
3. Perception in this country is that the U.S.-led coalition is beginning to lose it's strategic grip on the Afghan situation. I don't necessary believe that, and I appreciate your optimism regarding the outcome. How is the prosecution of the war being viewed "off the street" in Pakistan and elsewhere in the region?>>
To be frank, I have no idea but my best estimated guess or my instinct leads me to believe that this is too sophisticated a job for the likes of Bin Laden. Bio-terrorism, although equally reprehensible, is far trickier to handle than a deceitful and cowardly act of hijacking a plane and running it into a building.
In my opinion most of them would have picked up anthrax if the Bin Laden group had handled it. If you have been following this anthrax case closely, you would have found that reports are leading towards a domestic hand trying to take advantage of the current situation. Its more akin to a Unabomber type of deranged group.
I do hope they are caught although when I was caught up in Kuwait in August 1990, we had a false alarm of Iraqis planning to attack with poison gas. I remember the children were young and the whole family spent the night in a basement where towels soaked in water were placed under the doorsills and all air conditioning ducts were closed. It was the first time I had heard about Anthrax. Uncharacteristically Iraqi demeanour has been very subdued and the Libyans are quiet.
With the change of government in Syria and Bashar in charge, a leading ophthalmologist, I doubt the Syrians have the stomach or the appetite to engage in such a nefarious activity. The strains of the Anthrax, the frequency of the postings and a deliberate attempt to disfigure the writing will lead to the culprits in the near future.
I have not been able to discuss this issue with a great many Pakistanis but my friends are delighted with the Government policy and genuinely feel that Musharraf has turned a corner and begun a new era. In Pakistan, I am not a very liked person due to my condemnation of Islamic extremism and their involvement in across the border terrorism, which at times leads to myself being labelled as a traitor.
Hence now when I talk about orthodox islams responsibility in encouraging violence and terrorism in the name of Holy Jihad and hold Imam Ghazali treatise responsible for “death of enlightenment” corresponds to Blasphemy. On that premise alone, I could be sentenced to death. But I have never cared nor shall I back away when the truth has to be expounded. I have one nationality, humanity and I consider myself to be a global citizen and as such my views tend to make me at odds with a lot of people.
My relationship with the elite in Pakistan is blow hot blow cold. They have the perception that I am a maverick and as a consequence do not carry much weight and that realisation helps me to be open and impartial. Fairness again is a relative term and sometimes I do get upset with slanted news reports and the spin created. From the last 5 years in this thread, I have continued my banal activities and make my forecasts on global events. That independent free mind helps me make that those kind of analysis and deductions that are now considered by some on SI as insider information.
I laugh on it since when I was making a prediction of the Bush-Gore campaign, I was “THE INSIDER” since most of the projections held true to form. But the truth is I was no insider then nor am I now. Yes I am defending my nation vehemently because the failure of Pakistan to perform would be nightmarish. It would destabilize the whole of Northern India. Afghanistan has 5 million guns, Pakistan has 17 million guns.
They are fiercely independent people and I have to admit that they do support Islam over the US but on this particular issue, the people are satisfied that their neck has been saved. I have no doubt whatsoever that Pakistan could have been a target if emotions would have prevailed. I do not think that this would have cost the US much but my country would have been devastated in every aspect.
At these crossroads, the elite of Pakistan generally are quite pro-Musharraf and support his strategy. The background of the subcontinent is a pre-requisite in understanding the dynamics and popular public reaction. The authority is very much subscribed to like 30,000 bureaucrats ruled 300,000,000 subjects and my Indian friends get irked and piqued by their own sense of grandiosity. I am a far simpler man and understand my limitations and see that authority is never challenged therefore the concept of a coup against Musharraf is far fetched and assuming the worst that he is taken out as an individual, the next in line Joe (Nickname) is another liberal.
This whole propaganda that the Pakistan army is responsible for all the wrongs on the earth is good enough for the New York Times and The Times of India. It holds good reading for the gullible masses but someone with even minimal knowledge of the ethos of the Pakistan Army would know that the commissioned officer would give his life rather than revolt against his chief. I see that Musharraf will accept the recent request for increased co-operation and all these joy killers making their own assumptions about command and control will be sorely disappointed. Even if this recent news is factual that few nuclear scientists had ugly connections, look at the closeness of the relationship with the US. These Pakistanis are handed over for further interrogation, which is what the Hindustan Times is reporting today.
I think the war is going on track and there is no fear of losing the objective. The whole organisation and network of terrorism are on the run and I remain steadfast in my belief that the US forces can complete the job very quickly. This is one of the most unreported campaign and the news that we have received from the press that 35 of the Pakistani activists who joined the Taleban all lost their life in a single attack.
If one attack can yield such a rich booty of deranged terrorists who left their the peace of their home and wanted to wage war with a bunch of lunatics a.k.a Taleban, I can imagine what is happening to the Taleban front line rank and file.
When the aerial campaign began on the Iraqi forces in Kuwait on 21st Jan 1991, we all expected that the Iraqi army will collapse. However as time went by and the aerial campaign had no end in sight, we thought that the bombings had been ineffective against the entrenched Iraqi positions. But in reality as the Allied forces began to move in, the Iraqis were totally decimated and surrendered as POW.
So the Taleban exist only in the figment of our imagination and I will deal with this aspect accordingly. They have been on the run and have endured a serious body blow. Most of their leaders are hiding and their oppressive writ is lost. Since the world tends to believe that hiding bandits control Afghanistan, yes I concede to that but as bandits and not as governors. They cannot use this as a basis of launching future attacks.
Impatience with war is part and parcel of peaceful societies therefore Eisenhower’s and Churchill’s are such a rare breed who exactly know the resolve required to beat down the adversary and deliver that with the best of efforts. Great leaders have the potential to deliver great results and I sincerely believe that the US is bestowed by providence at this crucial junction. His father delivered in the Gulf and he will deliver now.
<<2. Where does Saudi Arabia really stand? Who's in charge there?>>
Saudis are in a real dilemma. They cannot support because they had no idea of what a strong network of disgruntled Saudis have massed up in south west of Saudi Arabia. After the invasion of the Grand Mosques by Otaiba Jhamayan, this is the first time that the wahabi orthodoxy is on a collision course with the House of Saud. Prince Abdullah has recently stated that we need to see the pulse of our nation.
The House of Saud is like the House of Pahlavi of 1978. the Pahlavi’s had their Ayatollah and the Sauds are worried about their new Amir-ul-Momneen. It goes without saying that these Muslim extremists are butchers and assassins of the highest order. The pathetic part is that Osama Bin-Laden calls Omar as the Amir-ul-Momneen.
To achieve his nefarious objectives which is the political takeover of Saudi Arabia. Theologically speaking Osama Bin-Laden is not the prospective Ayatollah in waiting and is actually Omar who has been giving this title only to the extent of fighting the war and winning it in Saudi Arabia. Once the extremists are successful in Saudi Arabia, Ajami Omar will be forgotten. So the poor Omar is the cannon fodder for bigger Inter-Arab theological war of the Wahabi’s where their common enemy is the House of Saud which is definitely pro-west.
The dilemma I referred to is this. To be in the good books of the extremist elements of their own country, they have to be decisively sound more conservative and their relationship with the West is definitely at a crossroad. I see that within the next 1 or 2 years they would like to tow an independent line and the present frozen relationship with Arafat will be revived. The House of Saud have definitely tried to play to the galleries and masses.
I concur with this approach and it is my opinion that a repressive House of Saud is better than a democratic Wahabi Orthodoxy like we have seen in Iran. The Shah would have better than the crippled democracy of the Ayatollahs. But the Shia Orthodoxy is more openminded than the Wahabi Orthodoxy and to quantify it on a scale of 1-10 in terms of oppression. If the Shia’s are 7, then the Sunnis would be 9. If I was the west, I would not demand much of Saudi Arabia. I would concentrate more on Turkey and try to cement the present gains of west in Pakistan. It would also be preferable to establish a toe-hole like the long-standing close relationship Turkey enjoys with the US. Pakistan Army to be encouraged and quietly moved towards a more liberal role. I am definitely sure that a new era has begun in terms of the regional stability.
Pakistan and Turkey will be the key players in this emerging epoch. When Saud-Al-Faisal was in Pakistan recently, I’m pretty sure he must have given a lot of support to the Pakistani government and they are supporting this action by demonstrating through material help.
Too much criticism of Saudi would serve only to encourage the opponents of the House of Saud. The cells of South Western Saudi Arabia would love to see a withdrawal of support from the West. That can be quite devastating especially in Oil prices.
The world markets did stomach the Iranian revolution but Saudi unrest would definitely cause chaos to the global economy. As a swing producer, Saudi stability is important. My two cents worth..
My best to you and yours..
Iqbal Latif
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