He will be caught soon, no hiding place, yes without him it is difficult world as confidence will not be restored. Bush is trying to underplay his success, you will see good progress soon may be in one month by 17th Nov the 'Taliban' will be out,. Some other queries and my answers, and you take care.. Don’t worry the bull will live but bull needs some circumstances those are presently little hurt..
<oil shipping lanes are threatened and disrupted
(slam dunk eventually, with barrel prices jumping, and world economic recovery thwarted)
With Qaboos of Oman on one side of the Gulf and now Pakistani port of PASNI and Gawadar on the other controlled by US forces with four battle carrier groups in the region, no one -ucks around. Iran takes due notice..
<Egypt's Mubarek and Jordan's Abdullah are toppled
WORST CASE WOULD BE ASSASSINATION OF PAKISTAN'S MUSHAREEF
(slam dunk eventually, with Islamic Fundies rising, regional instability worsening, assassination would be trigger to Paki Civil War)>
Egypt's Mubarek on scale of 1-10 the chances are 6, Jamma'ul Ismlamia is the main concern for me, two regions are intellectual bed rocks one is the Egyptian Syed Qutb party, other is South West of Saudi Arabia, the region from most of these 11 Saudis came. The biggest risk is not Abdullah in Jordan he is well entrenched and liked and protected by Jordanians, Black September 1970's was one occasion where Hashimiites could have been over thrown once that danger was out again with the help of Pakistani pilots who beat the hell out Palestinians in Amman, Air Commodore Khaqan Abbassi and Brig Ziaul Haq did the job for King Hussien where he never forgot them neither Arafat forgave the Pakistanis for saving the Hashimiites. No threat to Abdullah who is now protected by Israelites and liked by Palestinians for her wife is a Palestinian refugee born in Kuwait. he has no problems with anyone in the region, no threat on that account. On scale of 1-10 your Egypt and Jordan are respectively lopsided scenario one is 6 other King Abdullah one is 2..Anyway Egypt and Abdullah are both fully hedged in this crisis so is Oman’s Qaboos, so lets not worry too much on that account.
Coming to longest neck and sticking out and tended as well and the biggest -alls in the region is PAKISTAN'S MUSHAREEF-WORST CASE is again nothing big, no major crisis will emerge, ZiaulHaq disappeared in thin air with no impact on command as Baig took over. You may not know this that our sub-continent was ruled by British with less than 15,000 English civil servants, much as any one may fictionalise and believe in these stories around of implosions and disturbances the fact is the Command and control so far luckily is one great fortune for goods and bad we will not have the civil war, our coups has been far too many but no loss of life loss of democracy of course but once our democracy dies our liberty is restored as the ‘dictators’ are more conscious of democratic values than the so called elected democrats. His Vice Chief Yusuf called as Joe, equally pragmatic AND FORWARD LOOKING OFFICER, I SEE ON SCALE OF 1-10 NO chance of such destabilisation, I would consider that on scale of 1-10 the worst scenario is probably a 2.5. The Corp Commanders now are all very positive and forward looking guys and exactly knows where their interest lies, anyway they know it well that they have a good chance to show to the world that they have ditched the dirty baggage of Taliban so has US their long term ally who made wear this at first place and now once they have gotten rid they will probably go all the way.
<bio-attack causing real deaths with bigger numbers
bio-attack causing real deaths with bigger numbers
(real big variable now, was anthrax a test?)>
I think more Americans will fear these attacks more the terrorist will be heartened to continue, much as I feel the urgency and acute nature of fear they transpire I have my doubts about viability of these attacks, this only represent a further last ditch attempt to black mail America and try to get them to negotiate with the perpetrators of this crime. I feel that anyone who had read ‘Executive Action’ had a plot of what is happening now, this is a typical plagiarised sick version of a sick novel and will fail, the mankind ability to face and recuperate is far greater than the cowardice of backstabbing.
<BinLaden bombing Moslem mosques, blaming the USA
(his frustration with cooperating Arab/Moslem nations is growing with probably desperation, will he soon turn his sights to Saudi Arabia?)>
The Grand Mosque was attacked by one his fellow province member read my posts where I explain the politics of that grand mosque invasion in times of King Khalid, this is not a workable ploy they were killed with anti aircraft fire by the Saudis in the Grand Mosque, you are right on one count unfortunately the invasion of Grand Mosque by his province fanatical clan was blamed on US, it was an attack to throw out Al-Sauds but Us got the blame from the Muslim world the fool it is they now are following some one who has betrayed the sanctity of the grand Mosque but such is dastard sense of understanding of most of these fanatical and Muslims who fail to connect with justice and equity. On scale of 1-10 if the previous act in 1969 would have not been committed this could be a possibility but now none, the Saudi protect the Holy sites with a brigade from Prince Abdullah national Guards. Interesting thing to note is that Saddam AND Osama are both perverted version of Islamic thought one became a Muslim after invading Kuwait otherwise he was a known secularist and the other is from perverted sect of Wahabism who may represent and constitute a lot of voice but self defeating as the very concept is a-human and will wither, come what it may be.. These things don’t last , ,where they last nations wither like Somalia like Sudan like Afghanistan or if Pakistan would follow this path would meet the same fate..
South West of Saudi is the trouble spot, but Saudi hedging of positions has removed or capped that threat for some time, Osama is a bigot and bigots are cheap as such cheap things can be expected but his ability to move has been curtailed, he cannot talk he cannot step out and the entire hornets nest ability to communicate has turned them into a richest booty of terrorist assembled in one place, thousands of them for that last devilish stand, they will be wiped clean or they will surrender like Iraqis did in thousands..
Most probably I think he will surrender he will not like to die, he likes to live and he likes his life and woman, all this suicide and all this acts of cowardice are for other people children his own self he will be surrendering so that he can become the Sunni Ayatollah, Osama alive will be a bigger problem than dead so he will be soon dead although he will be coward to surrender but someone will put bullet in his head..
Iqbal Latif
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