Are you sure you are reading what I wrote for 2004? I have a major ramp, not correcting in the first six months (yes a possible relapse in Feb/early March, but nothing serious). As for last year's forecast we did get what was promised for the first 4 months or so ("Nominally, I have the first leg down as a decline from 1537 to 1263 by 3/19. The model for the Dow does not have such a sharp decline, only to around 8500/8650. That is followed by a sharp "victory" bounce (also dictated by other parameters, though) to just under 1400 (#msg-647289)), including a first leg down to 1253 (vs the 1263 in the forecast and on 3/12 which is well within the "by 3/19). You should not have lost money on your puts (which I always think is a very bad play) if you did not try and squeeze the last drop of blood from those turnips (g). You had a very nice decline of at least 2.5 months and at least 200 Naz points, why not take the profits as offered and then if you think that the next leg down is coming (as I did) reshort on the forecasted ramp (the market did not really take out 1400 until late in April...). If you are going to make money in this market, you got to learn to sell before price peaks and buy before price bottoms (or a little after), you are going to lose money if you don't use a gradual approach of taking some profits rather than the "full" possible profits.
When you play options, it is rare that you can use stop losses rationally. How can you buy options with the clear knowledge that the deck is stacked againt you 8 time out of 10? You want to play options wisely, sell the time premiums, don't be the sucker buying those. Last what were you doint buying LT puts, when already from late 2002 I held that the second half of 2003 is going to be very bullish? Your buys surely could not have been influenced by my writing. I had a worst case of 1100 on the Nassacre, if the April bounce went above 1400 which it did. Why not start cashing some of those puts when we reached 1253 and I had a ramp of at least 150 Naz points into April?
I am going to make it a rule from now on, any question addressed to me relating to the "wisdom" of buying any options (puts or calls will simply go unanswered. I just hate seeing so many people lose their money on this completely legal scam.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
