Zeev, I'm a well educated engineer. We have something in common with most engineers and scientists. We don't like criticism. You missed the whole point of my reply, and/or I communicated poorly.
First and foremost I am not blaming you for my puts. I play my own game, not that of Mr. ZHed.
OTOH here is a graphical representation done by Augie of your ' 03 prediction. I'd say it went into the toilet in early March, and was a bad miss. In my world it is not an accurate prediction of what happened, by any stretch of the imagination, and you are wrong if you say it was.
I don't think Augie made that up, he used your predictions.
As for my puts I rarely play them. I did a very small play last year as a hedge/bet, and yes I could have made a small profit at one point in time. But only small. It was a bad move all the way around.
As for profit taking yes and no, it depends. I had my best year money wise this year, ever. And percentage wise I am well up in the 3 digit catagory. I was in golds and still am, nearly 100 % plus, most of the year. I have taken some profits at opportune times, only to roll those over to lagging and micro cap and other gold and silver issues.
We don't all play the game like you, nor do we have to in order to profit. But yes on options, profits do need to be taken with great rapidity.
As for your ' 04 prediction, yes I have read. I'm not illiterate Zeev.
Fwiw I think you should change your name to Big Hed, instead of Zeev Hed. It appears you automatically think all that come here follow you like you are The Pied Piper Of Stocks. Not so in this case. I do enjoy seeing what you have to say, and how well your predictions come true.
I am going to make it a rule from now on, any question addressed to me relating to the "wisdom" of buying any options (puts or calls will simply go unanswered. I just hate seeing so many people lose their money on this completely legal scam. ===============================================================
I think that is a excellent policy Zeev, and I wholeheartedly agree with your conclusions. I've known a lot of traders and can't think of any who have ever expressed any degree of success with them.
Having said that, I'm sure this post will summon forth a plethora of self proclaimed successful options traders (oxymoron?) who will be only too happy to attest to their skillful options maneuverings... <ggg>
May I suggest you consider putting your new "rule" into the thread header?
Hi Zeev I really don't want to appear a ankle biter but you keep saying something that just bugs me because it ain't true, its that saying that 80% of options expire worthless. Today you wrote. How can you buy options with the clear knowledge that the deck is stacked againt you 8 time out of 10? The number is really between 30 and 40% but the 80% number comes from novices who don't have the money or the knowledge to play the options game right so they buy an at the money or out of the money option and subsquently get their clock cleaned. IMO a better way of putting it would to say that options are a depreciating asset and we all know what to do with them "sell'em" Here is the start of an article on the subject that appeared in stocks and commodities magazine a couple of years ago. Its written bt Lawrence McMillan auther of "Options as a Stategic Investment" its pretty much the bible as far as option traders are concerned
Zeev, Sorry that you don't like Options, I do. So far, in 2003 I have had seven sucessfull Option trades and one loser. I allways buy 5 to 7 point IN THE MONEY Options, two to three months out, at what I perceive, to be market cycle turning points. If an Option price falls 50% from my cost, I take the loss. Right now I am holding two (long) Call Option contracts, and both are in the black.
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