Zeev, I read your prediction for '04. I commend you for sticking your neck out, those that criticize and don't (stick their neck out), are less than worthy reads.
I remember your prediction from last year, and wonder if your indicators are falling into a similar situation, for this year. I was bearish that time also, purchased some LT puts, and they all sucked wind.
Longer term indicators, even from ZHed, are vulnerable in any market, and seemingly especially so in this one. It is easy to predict a major long term correction, but the precise timing of that is key for many of us, and is one tough issue. The precise timing is perhaps of less importance to ZHed, than it is to say nspolar.
So .... I guess a major point I would like to make is for folks to consider the importance of the longer term predictions that you or anyone else might make, relative to their style of trading/investing.
I recently went through all the types of things I normally look at, and if this market makes a serious push within the next few weeks, it will set precedent. Based on all the things I look at there should not be a push of any major degree from this position. Whether there is a major or minor correction is something I can not predict, with any accuracy.
In any event IMO the general market is at a very important juncture, right here. Perhaps the most important since the March 03 bottom. I'm presently 55/45 it is nearing a significant top. Yah, only 55/45 and my longer term type of portfolio reflects that.
Very long on golds, short very little.
Listen To The Noise
(LOL Olson)
The recent huge spike up in the OEX P/C ratio combined with the extreme low Equity P/C ratio is part of the noise. That type of action doesn't normally happen at bottoms. I can't see where it has ever happened at a bottom. But it doesn't necessarily signify the degree of correction that should follow, either.
This market will do its best to fake out the majority. Are those currently bulls or bears?
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