Replies to post #185791 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[extelecom]

Zev, Thanks, A great present for the holidays! Right or wrong, much appreciation for your efforts as always.

[Bullwinkle]

Thank you for the '04 roadmap Christmas gift... I would like to take this moment to also thank you for giving so much of yourself to this board by sharing your insight and the selfless task you take upon yourself in helping others. You and all of its participants truly make this a great neighborhood to live in. Here's to wishing you and your family a happy and joyous holiday season.

[Mariner*]

The Kondeatieff Winter
Mr. Zeev Hed,
There is no question that we are sitting on the precipice of a very steep decline. I agree with your early warning signals. This is going to be a banner year followed by signs of stress in early 2005. Culminating in the fall of that year with massive declines in the market.
http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index22.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/chapmand062902.html
http://www.ttheory.com/public/pubstudies/megatopics/longwave.html
http://faculty.washington.edu/modelski/IPEKWAVE.html
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/Archive/092002/Abstracts_new/Elrod/elrod.html
http://www.geocities.com/deuxsous/KLW.html
http://www.infognome.com/K_wave.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/hultberg120502.html
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Gordon.htm

Not much we can do about it.Think I'll have a beer!
M-

[integrivest]

Thanks for all you do here Z .... greatly appreciated.

All the best to you and yours during this holiday season.

Steve

[Public Heel]

That's awesome, Zeev! If you're right, or even close, you should get the Nobel Prize, or maybe even your own show in Vegas. I can see it now... "Zeev and the Turnips, now playing at the Mirage".

[Bruce A Thompson]

Zeev

Thank you for the 2004 map. Brilliant as usual. Here's the question for all the doubters and AntiZeev naysayers to munch on..........

very sharp retrenchment in February to early March with a first bottom on 3/8

And the question is.....What time will the bottom occur in the 8th? (VVVBG)

BT

[market_watcher]

Thanks. Hopefully 2004 will be another banner year for you.

On a more immediate note, do you see any signs that this week could bring the retrench that was forecast for the prior week? Probably not down to below 1900, as originally forecast, but maybe down to the 1920 area, for example.

[Dances-W-waves]

Thank you Maestro! ....for all that you do.


FWIW (not much), I'm looking for a decent size retrenchment in the next month(defined as a buy signal, or close, on the NDX 5 day RSI).....possibly in between the holidays or maybe coinciding with, or close to, your miner on the 7th, but definitely more then what I would call a "slight retrenchment".

I'm thinking maybe your original downturn is just a tad late.

Of course, this could still happen AFTER a nice move up and we reach your high on or before 1/23,and still be within the next month.

That's my swipe at a SWAG! <g>

[Rick Louden]

Zeev, I enjoyed reading your annual forecast as always and I would like to say thanks for all the good work and thoughts you share throughout the year.

Hope you and your family have a great holiday season, and wish you lots of those double and triple buckers in the coming year!

Rick

[doling2000]

Zeev
Thanks for a fun and profitable year. While I am not able to follow all of your daily trades, I have appreciated you're general sense of the market and guidance. It's clear you really love this work and I am one of many lurkers who have learned a great deal from you and I want to say thanks and Happy Holidays!

[blimfark]

Thank you for your 2004 forecast and for your insights and patience through 2003.

[5cap]

Zeev, in reply to your message 185716. My comment to your 2004 roadmap: imho, the powers that be will have the market 'up' for at least 4 or 5 months going into the election. You can bet the gov numbers that come out will support that. You may be selling the political spinmeisters short by predicting anything but a rosy outlook come october-november. An early 2004 dip in the market (feb-march low) will support that scenario. After the election, 2005 is a disaster waiting to happen no matter who wins.
5cap

[wecus]

Zeev,

I always like to view charts so I tried to visualize your roadmap for the COMP together with possible forks for the next year.



If the chart doesn't appear here's the link:
http://www.wecus.de/other/Roadmap2004.jpg

Of course I had to use some interpolations here and there (like guessing corrections or waves) but nevertheless I have tried to enter your wordings 1 on 1. Please feel free to correct any mistakes in the chart.

I usually don't post here but this one gives me the opportunity to thank you for sharing your thoughts so freely.

A happy and healthy New Year to you and all the others on this thread.

Andreas

[nevin]

Zeev, haven't posted you since days on SI, so hello again (trkn). Anyway been lurking here for some time and finally registered as a user.

I have a question about your prediction of a "nasty bear market" beginning some time in 2005. You always seem to have well thought out analysis for your predictions but I haven't seen any real elaboration on this subject. I guess I'm interested because I see things lined up in the opposite direction. The economy seems to be turning around (job additions are hitting around 100k per month, corporate earnings up, stock market up, consumer sentiment up etc.). So why, if things continue on this path, would the stock market decline or continue to languish in bear territory?

nevin